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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

UncleJuJu98 said:
We won't know really until the day of; or very close to the event. Don't count out the "too perfect scenario". It's just too early, I hope for the not so perfect scenario lol.
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Oh yeah without a doubt. There is soooooooo much to unpack and so much we don’t know. Just looking at what the eye can see :).
 
I think everyone (on both "sides", if you even want to call it that) should take a dose of reality: Yes, the chances of this being anything like <redacted> are very slim. It'd be unwise to loosely throw around comparisons like that. That being said, this event has an essentially unfettered ceiling. If it can capitalize on the parameter space, this could easily be a top echelon event remembered for years/decades to come.

Think of it like this: You're playing Blackjack against the dealer, and the dealer has revealed an Ace they have. You're officially on notice! But anything is still possible from a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency to a blackjack.
 
wx_guy said:
I think everyone (on both "sides", if you even want to call it that) should take a dose of reality: Yes, the chances of this being anything like <redacted> are very slim. It'd be unwise to loosely throw around comparisons like that. That being said, this event has an essentially unfettered ceiling. If it can capitalize on the parameter space, this could easily be a top echelon event remembered for years/decades to come.

Think of it like this: You're playing Blackjack against the dealer, and the dealer has revealed an Ace they have. You're officially on notice! But anything is still possible from a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency to a blackjack.
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Mesoscale interactions will likely play a fairly significant role, especially with regard to activity in the afternoon over Alabama. That said, yeah, from what we are able to see anyway, a lot of real estate for dangerous weather in this setup as it appears now. I'm sure there'll be subtle changes but models have been surprisingly consistent and, if anything, continuing to uptrend.
 
ColdFront said:
In weather? Hardly no scenario is perfect. We can look at our apex outbreaks (4/27/11, 4/3/74) and even they had issues. You really don’t know how “perfect” the set up is until after
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Fair. I was just thinking what you think it would be just based on what we have in terms of models. I think for the events you listed there was a little bit of moisture issues still? Especially for 4/27.
 
Brice W said:
Fair. I was just thinking what you think it would be just based on what we have in terms of models. I think for the events you listed there was a little bit of moisture issues still? Especially for 4/27.
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4/27 necessarily didn’t have moisture issues. It was a question a few days out, but the crapvection was the biggest question mark. I had a post a few pages back on 4/3/74 on how a large multi-state MCS came through the risk areas probably 4-5 hours before the main event. That could have impeded instability especially if it had kicked off any additional storms.

Only afterwards could you say, yeah, these were almost as close to perfect as you’ll get.
 
@ColdFront Agreed with every post you’ve made related to this topic. I think I’m just having major doubts while some of the ingredients are definitely eye catching. I still have many many questions, but that’s because it’s still early. I think the previous system kinda set that mentality for me, which I’m sure it probably has for a lot of others on here. I mean everything can be slam dunk but if you have that one ingredient less than the other you’ll result into something like 5/20/19. Some of those questions will get answered when the HRRR comes in. But I’ll still have my doubts.
 
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