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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

UncleJuJu98 said:
Was reading through BMX write up from this morning and this concerned me. We don't wanna see any outflow boundaries Saturday afternoon, those will spell major trouble on a pristine environment like Saturday.


"Unsettled conditions with ongoing showers and some storms may
persist into the early morning hours Saturday. Outflow boundaries
from previous convection are expected across the area and could
help act as low-level focal points for new convection as strong
warm air/positive moisture advection moves in from the south with
a potentially inland advancing coastal/marine boundary."
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uhm, words...crap
 
keithGA said:
Updraft helicity from the NOAA C-Shield model.

View attachment 35044
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Worth noting that model tends to put out very over-exaggerated UH values, so I wouldn't expect reality to look anything like that. That said, I think the general placement of those tracks make sense.
 
18Z NAM suggests threat foci through the MSV, particularly in parts of northern MO into IL and perhaps in the ArkLaMiss. Could see some fast-movers getting going in SE Iowa.
1741725629700.png
 
Updated JAN Discussion:

Conditions continue to look favorable for a multi-day severe weather
event Friday into Saturday. An upper low is progged to eject across
the midwest Friday and in response a warm front will lift across the
area. With much of the upper support displaced north of the area,
the warm sector appears more suppressed initially for this round.
That said, shear and instability appears ample even Friday for
severe storms capable of all hazards. The shape of the warm sector
suggests potential for a forced squall line to push across the
area. There could be perhaps a few supercells ahead of this line.
Damaging winds look to be the primary threat, but the environment
also supports tornadoes and hail. The biggest question for this
initial round is just how far north does the warm sector get with
main upper support lifting well north of the area. This initial
round also serves to precondition the environment ahead of
Saturday`s event, which looks more potent.

The longer wave trough ejects across the central CONUS Saturday and
will elicit an even greater low level response with the arrival of
more perturbed flow around the base of the trough, only adding to
the already moist warm sector from Friday. As a result, dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s across a broad area. Following a brief lull
early Saturday morning, a mid to upper jet will overspread the area,
resulting in strong deep layer shear. Supercellular mode appears
favored and will carry a threat for all hazards, possibly
significant hazards, including strong tornadoes, damaging winds and
large hail. Storms look to initiate across SW/Central MS and should
pose a threat for large hail initially with low freezing levels and
strong shear and instability. The environment will also be favorable
for tornadoes, possibly strong, even initially late Saturday morning
into early Saturday afternoon with long curved hodographs present
across much of the area, south and east of the Natchez Trace. As
storms track east/northeast Saturday afternoon into the early
evening hours, strong tornado threat should continue as mature
storms maintain a tap into a favorable environment. Threat looks to
maximize in our area early Saturday evening, in the vicinity of the
I-59 corridor with the arrival of the midlevel speed max and a
strengthening low level jet. Severe threat should end later Saturday
night as the cold front clears the area.
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TileDude said:
You better get that drone you were mentioning bought this week so you can live stream those wedges passing through Jefferson County Saturday.
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Man, Im holding out (I will be getting one sometime in the near future though), I really want to but I'm so hesitant on using 600$ on. A DJI mini 3. I got some more urgent house projects. What I will be doing Saturday is going to Homewood. I have a good spot I like that looks over north Jefferson and West Jefferson county. I'll be sure to pass on any pictures or videos from there, going to bring me some binoculars as well.
 
Will be interesting to see if the SPC expands the enhanced risk further into MS tomorrow. The strongest CAPE appears to be centering there. CAPE will diminish slightly as the system moves into Alabama, but will be well compensated with significantly increased helicity and sheer.
 
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