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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

KCweatherboy said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the longwave broad nature of this trough make it more difficult for it to become de-amplified or too amplified since any changes would have to occur within the larger structure of the trough? I could see where the shortwave on Friday becomes too amplified, but I'm having a more difficult time seeing how that could happen on Saturday.
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Yeah you could very well be right, but I think changes in the larger scale structure of the trough are possible especially at this range. In the same way things have trended a touch more amplified over the last 24 hours they could easily continue or switch back. Also whether a shortwave becomes more prevalent embedded within the flow. But I would be interested to hear other people's thoughts?
 
Atomz said:
If I recall correctly, Fulton county hasn't had a significant tornado (EF2+) since 2008. Before that it goes all the way back to 1975, when an F3 touched down SW of the city.
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Of the top of my head I can’t remember one since 2008. There was one April 8/9, 1998 in Cobb and Fulton that was an F-2.
 
Clancy said:
Didn't see it till now, but end of the NAM run suggests the possibility for some activity into the Upper Midwest. Could certainly be conducive to activity in your neck of the woods @CheeselandSkies
View attachment 35036
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Got my eye on it; right now western Illinois doesn't look terrible, although storms if any will be hauling donkey. No different than 3/31/23 in that department, though.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I can't believe the forum auto-censored my term for the posterior portion of one's anatomy to "donkey" after I'd already spelled it out using certain punctuation marks that resemble the letters.
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I got one of my posts auto-censored for saying a picture of a hodograph was hodograph “word for pictures-in-playboy magazine”
 
Was reading through BMX write up from this morning and this concerned me. We don't wanna see any outflow boundaries Saturday afternoon, those will spell major trouble on a pristine environment like Saturday.


"Unsettled conditions with ongoing showers and some storms may
persist into the early morning hours Saturday. Outflow boundaries
from previous convection are expected across the area and could
help act as low-level focal points for new convection as strong
warm air/positive moisture advection moves in from the south with
a potentially inland advancing coastal/marine boundary."
 
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