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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

ColdFront said:
It’s not even a close comparison, but we didn’t reallly pick up last year until the end of April. We had a few busts and the surprise outbreak in Indiana/Ohio but things didn’t get crazy until the end of the month
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Yeah, and we had a plethora amount of setups prior to the April 26th event that had fell flat on their face. Only this year, I predict May to be slower than last, so it will have to be April if we want to avoid another 2018, (jk lol). I just hope we see a westward retreat early this year so that the plains can still get their share of activity.
 
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tennessee storm chaser said:
So bad that stupid first wave Thursday has to rear its ugly head . What a waste of a nice system as a chaser severe weather enthusiast.
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it’s what separates the big boys from the little ones. You have to have that first wave cooperate, pull in moisture, but move through quick and not inflict a significant air mass change.
 
FFC discussion puts it simply: lots of questions, but broadly the ingredients are there for a threat we must closely monitor. BMX says still too soon to make much out on the specifics of it all.
Active Weather Over the Weekend:

After a transition day on Friday (with southerly winds and returning
moisture), this weekend will be our next opportunity for impactful
weather. The bingo deck for Saturday and Sunday currently includes
the potential for both severe weather and flooding, what remains to
be seen is which numbers get called. The weather setup should
feature a strong trough over the Great Lakes and secondary shortwave
lifting north from the Gulf. The second wave is key for Georgia, and
at this time discrepancies in the timing and track remain. For
Saturday severe weather and or flooding are most probable in
northwest Georgia given current guidance. Output from GEFS, EPS and
GEPS favors this area with a 25% chance for 2.00 inches rain or more
and the best CAPE/Shear profiles. The most likely timing is
currently Saturday afternoon and night, but this could easily shift
by 12 hours in either direction given current model trends. A cold
frontal boundary may be floating around Georgia on Sunday. Depending
timing and location of this front additional thunderstorm activity
may occur on Sunday.

The overall forecast vibe for the upcoming weekend concerning,
especially since northwest Georgia is covered by a Day 6 Convective
Outlook. However significant uncertainties remain regarding the
timing and potential intensity of this event. Thus we advise people
continue to monitoring the forecast, while trying to not latch on to
any particular doom and gloom outlooks.

Albright
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Friday afternoon through Sunday.

A closed low will rapidly move east over the Four Corners States
Thursday night into Friday with the trough orientation becoming
negative as it approaches the Continental Divide later in the
morning. Shortwave ridging will temporarily amplify downstream in
response over our area Friday morning. While global numerical
guidance continues to coalesce around a more unified solution,
some discrepancies persist in regard to the exact upper low
location and trajectory during this time. The general track will
take the upper low from over Northern Texas to Southern Kansas
northeastward through the day Friday into Eastern Kansas. The
shortwave ridging over the local area will quickly move southeast
over South-Central Georgia by the afternoon. The upper low will
being to gain latitude, becoming centered over Southeastern
Minnesota Saturday morning while a shortwave trough develops in
the northwest flow pattern over West Texas Saturday morning and
quickly ejects eastward toward the Lower Mississippi River Valley
Region later in the afternoon. Initially broad neutral-tilt
troughing will exist over much of the Central and Southern Plains
by Saturday evening while shortwaves will quickly advance toward
the area from the west and southwest. The amplitude of this
secondary trough that moves toward the area late Saturday into
Sunday also varies among global guidance but consensus generally
is for a more shallow solution that moves east over the Mid-South
region through the day Sunday. Rapid deepening surface low will
develop across the Lee of the Rockies early in the day Friday and
will quickly move northeast across Kansas by late morning and
become positioned beneath the upper low later in the afternoon.
The pacific front will advance eastward across Eastern Texas
through Louisiana and cross the Lower Mississippi River Valley by
early Saturday morning. There is potential for a surface wave to
develop across Southwest Louisiana with a possible coastal/marine
front that moves inland across the Central Gulf Coast during the
morning hours Saturday ahead of the approaching front. The front
will push east through the area in the early morning hours Sunday
followed by a reinforcing cold front that will move southeast
across the area later that afternoon.

Expect increasing clouds with breezy conditions Friday night with
low to medium (20-50%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms
Friday night across the northwest third of the forecast area,
expanding to encompass the rest of the area during the day
Saturday. Severe storm potential with all hazards will become most
likely from late Friday night far northwest to include the entire
forecast area during the day on Saturday across the west-central
portions of the area then continue Saturday night and into early
Sunday across the eastern portion of the area. Continued
uncertainty in the timing and extent for severe potential persists
due to continued differences in the overall feature placement and
evolution through this time period that currently precludes
further resolving of more specific impacts and timing. More detail
on risks and timing will emerge as these details become more
clear through time. There is a medium to high (60-90%) chances for
rain and thunderstorms is expected Saturday over much of the area
with windy conditions. The activity will become increasingly
confined to the eastern third of the area towards sunrise Sunday
where lingering showers and perhaps a few remaining storms fully
exit the state before midday. Dry conditions will return areawide
during the afternoon hours. Highs will range from the lower 70s
far east to the lower 80s southwest Friday afternoon followed by
lows Saturday morning from the lower 50s north and east to the
lower 60s southwest and central. Highs Saturday will range from
the lower 70s northwest to around 80 southeast followed by lows
Sunday morning from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s
southeast. Highs Sunday will range from the mid 60s far north to
the lower 70s far south.
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Clancy said:
FFC discussion puts it simply: lots of questions, but broadly the ingredients are there for a threat we must closely monitor. BMX says still too soon to make much out on the specifics of it all.
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Just a lot of people living and dying with every model run. It has downtrended (thankfully), and the ceiling does not look as high as it did yesterday. But the minute a model shows a slight uptick, all of a sudden every is huffing hopium again.

It is Monday. This system is forecasted for Friday and Saturday. Things will change. It's way too early for some of y'all to be screaming Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.
 
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TornadoFan17 said:
Just a lot of people living and dying with every model run. It has downtrended (thankfully), and the does not look as high as it did yesterday. But the minute a model shows a slight uptick, all of a sudden every is huffing hopium again.

It is Monday. This system is forecasted for Friday and Saturday. Things will change. It's way too early for some of y'all to be screaming Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.
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Yes!!!!!

This thread is following the normal progression before a severe weather event. It is a roller coaster of thoughts. "It's going to be bad", "nah its a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency", "whoa the 00z run was an uptrend", "yikes the 18z killed the threat". I'm joking, but it is funny to watch the up and down posts with every model run.
 
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