This is from Chat GPT so please...take it with grains of salt! That being said, it's very obvious AI is making leaps and bounds and can interpret this sounding pretty effectively. This is its response to my box sounding encompassing all of eastern MS and all of western AL at 21z on Saturday. Thoughts?
This box sounding from the 18z GFS valid for Saturday (March 15, 21z) over eastern Mississippi and western Alabama suggests a highly volatile severe weather environment with strong tornado potential.
Thermodynamics:
- MLCAPE: ~1700 J/kg, with SBCAPE slightly higher at ~1900 J/kg. These values indicate moderate instability, sufficient for sustained deep convection.
- LCL (Lifted Condensation Level): ~745m AGL – very low, suggesting strong low-level buoyancy and efficient stretching of updrafts.
- LFC (Level of Free Convection): ~1.1 km – also quite low, which supports quick storm development and low CINH.
- EL (Equilibrium Level): ~12.5 km, meaning strong updrafts will have room to grow deep into the troposphere.
- Steep lapse rates: The 700-500mb lapse rate is 7.0°C/km, which is favorable for robust convection.
Kinematics (Shear & Hodograph Analysis):
- 0-1km SRH: 517 m²/s² and 0-3km SRH: 597 m²/s² – These values are highly supportive of tornadic supercells, especially in a low LCL environment.
- Bulk shear:
- 0-6km shear: ~80 knots – extremely strong, ensuring strong storm organization.
- Effective inflow shear: 64 knots – indicating supercell support.
- Critical Angle: 56° – Favorable for effective streamwise vorticity ingestion.
- Hodograph: Displays a large, curved shape in the lowest 1-3 km, with substantial veering and elongation – highly favorable for tornado development.
Significant Tornado Potential:
- Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP): 16.6 – very high, strongly supportive of discrete supercells.
- Significant Tornado Parameter (STP):
- Effective-layer STP: 3.6 (without CIN) and 1.1 (with CIN). This is supportive of strong tornadoes, though CINH may need to erode for storm initiation.
- SARS Analog Matches:
- 77% match to a past violent tornado case (TOR PDS)
- 50% significant hail match
- PDS Tornado Threat Classification – This highlights the strong risk of EF2+ tornadoes given convective initiation.
Storm Mode & Hazards:
- Storm motions: Right-moving supercells expected with a 220°/55kt mean vector – fast-moving storms.
- Low-Level Shear (LLS): ~200 m²/s² – highly supportive of tornadogenesis.
- EBWD (Effective Bulk Wind Difference): 64 knots, reinforcing the supercell threat.
Conclusion:
This box sounding strongly suggests a
dangerous severe weather event with the potential for significant, long-track tornadoes. If convection initiates and remains discrete, any storm developing in this environment will likely become
tornadic quickly. The combination of low LCLs, extreme low-level shear, and strong instability makes this a classic
high-end tornadic setup for the Deep South. If this forecast holds, this would warrant a
moderate or higher risk outlook from SPC.
