Severe Weather Threat: 12/31/20 - 1/1/21

[Bama Ravens]

Since we are a day or so out from the threat, I figured it was worth a dedicated thread at this point.

 

[warneagle]

Upgraded to an ENH with a 10% tornado area across the southern half of LA and southwest MS.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[Richardjacks]

Close race between the front and instability for Alabama...storms trying to run ahead of it early Friday. Kind of typical for occluded lows like this.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Not looking so impressive for the classic "Dixie Alley" (northern and central MS/AL and parts of southern TN and western GA), but a red box is already out for parts of coastal Texas.

 

[MattW]

I'm debating if I want to try chasing in Georgia tomorrow. The high-res NAM is showing some discrete storms moving through from 9 till 2, but I'm not seeing ANY of the ingredients for severe weather. Yet the SPC has us in 2% tornado probabilities.

 

[JayF]

Love the comment in the Forecast discussion from the NWS in Huntsville:

SO LET'S DIVE INTO THE INCREDIBLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING

 

[Fred Gossage]

The 00z soundings from LCH and LIX tell a lot. Not only do we have a strong low-level capping inversion below 850mb at LCH, but we also have another really strong inversion just below 700mb. There would be very strong mid-level subsidence associated with that. That explains why Louisiana hasn't lit up like a Christmas tree today.

The LIX sounding shows what will be the big problem for the overnight/Friday morning threat closer to home for the AL/MS/TN folks. It shows that the shallow near-surface stable layer the HRRR has been consistently modeling does indeed exist, even way down there in almost 70F dewpoint air. That would definitely be prominent up here where the air mass won't have that rich quality to it. That means that, even if storms are moving through in the morning, they would be elevated.... greatly reducing the already marginal tornado risk, and even greatly reducing the damaging wind risk.

 

[MattW]

I'm just not sure about Georgia, I think I might go Starm Chairsing: Arm Chair Storm Chasing. It sounds like this season will be more active possibly maybe potentially anyways.

 

[MattW]

Maybe some rotation starting to show up in the line? This is near Whitesville, GA right on the AL/GA line.

 

[MattW]

Just went TOR!

 

[MattW]

It looks like it's starting to weaken just north of White Sulphur Springs, GA, between there and Stovall, GA.

 

[MattW]

Based on SPC Mesoanalysis, the next most likely area for development is a bit north of a line from Columbus, GA to Macon, GA. I'm watching the line now moving east of Greenville, GA, it seems to want to rotate a little bit. This would be the same storm that was previously warned.

 

[andyhb]

Not a single severe report in a 10% tor zone yesterday, lol.

 

[MattW]

Looks like some rotation starting to develop east of Junction City, GA and moving ENE toward Knoxville, GA. No warning yet, rotation still pretty broad.

 

[MattW]

Warning is out.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
201 PM EST Fri Jan 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central Monroe County in central Georgia...
Southeastern Upson County in west central Georgia...
Northwestern Crawford County in central Georgia...
Northeastern Taylor County in west central Georgia...

* Until 230 PM EST.

* At 201 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Fickling Mill, or near Butler, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Roberta, Culloden, Knoxville, Salem, Sandy Point, Horns, Musella
and Fickling Mill.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Not a single severe report in a 10% tor zone yesterday, lol.

#2020ing to the very end.

 

[warneagle]

The good news is that area is very rural and it's a long way away from threatening a populated area.

 

[warneagle]

Looks like it'll miss Roberta to the west, that's the largest town in the area until you get to Macon. It'll be a close call for Salem, which is a much smaller town.

Really impressive rotation but no sign of debris still.

 

[warneagle]

Okay, this is going to miss Macon safely to the west. Looks like it'll be well south of Forsyth as well, which is a fairly large town. Bolingbroke is another tiny town, so the main concern is what happens if/when it crosses I-75. The rotation still looks really impressive. It might be getting stronger, even.