guidance is in good agreement with the surface low lifting well to
our north (into Ohio) by the time the cold front moves into our
area. This will veer the surface winds substantially, and lift
most of the low level dynamics well to our north while the upper
level dynamics remain to our west. Therefore, any severe threat
appears to be very marginal at this time for us even if the
slower/higher instability solution pans out. With the surface
winds veered to the southwest and the 0-6km shear vectors being
parallel to the forcing, I expect any tornado potential to be low.
I thought so too but I'm not so sure it doesn't have a small tornado down at the moment. Velocity picked up quickly in the last two scans and that's not far from the radar.The cold front is undercutting it.