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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 10/30-10/31/19

BMX is not impressed. I have to agree.

However,
guidance is in good agreement with the surface low lifting well to
our north (into Ohio) by the time the cold front moves into our
area. This will veer the surface winds substantially, and lift
most of the low level dynamics well to our north while the upper
level dynamics remain to our west. Therefore, any severe threat
appears to be very marginal at this time for us even if the
slower/higher instability solution pans out. With the surface
winds veered to the southwest and the 0-6km shear vectors being
parallel to the forcing, I expect any tornado potential to be low.
Click to expand...
 
I'm more impressed with the fact that I have a soggy yard with mushrooms growing in it and am told my area is still in a drought.
 
Could be an interesting day in the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Thursday with the likelihood of a fast moving, broken line of storms in a very strongly sheared environment. A lot of low level moisture despite modest lapse rates should lead to sufficient destabilization.
 
The Hi-res NAM seems to be marginally increasing the threat south and east of Atlanta on Thursday between 3 and 5pmish. SigTor values peaking around 3.5 in some localized areas. It's only been increasing for a run or two but it definitely bears watching.
 
Significant Weather Advisory until 10 am for the area around Tuscaloosa (Al). A line of strong storms moving ENE. Some very mild (nonsignificant) spin with this storm. Some strong directional winds though in the 40mph range.

2127
 
A large enhanced risk is out across the mid Atlantic states tomorrow. Watch the complex of storms blowing up across LA/MS tonight to track northeast, and provide a locally enhanced area of severe risk. The EURO, HRRR, and NAM3KM base reflectivity indicate a storm holding its own with a long helicity streak.
 
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Good thunderstorm activity, and some rotation within the complex tonight across MS, but nothing significant enough to prompt any warnings since that one that was near McComb a few hours ago.
 
Kory said:
The cold front is undercutting it.
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I thought so too but I'm not so sure it doesn't have a small tornado down at the moment. Velocity picked up quickly in the last two scans and that's not far from the radar.

Edit: Very slight CC drop too right where that spike in velocity is/was. I suppose as close as that is to the radar that slight CC drop doesn't neceissarly mean tornado, could be leaves and other small stuff that straight line winds would kick up too.
 
Wouldn’t sleep on the tornado potential in northern NC and southern VA even though the storm mode will be mostly linear. The HRRR and 3km NAM are both pretty bullish with backing the surface winds ahead of the front, although the HRRR brings the strongest instability a good bit further north (almost to DC).
 
I have been on the road traveling since Saturday. First day back in the Office LOL. Saturday we traveled to NC. Stayed there until Monday. Monday we drove home to Alabama and then left to go straight to Ft. Walton Beach. Left there Wednesday. What a trip. :) It rained everywhere we were the entire time except Sunday. Bummer.
 
10% unhatched tor/45% unhatched wind on the 1630z update for NC northward to DC/Baltimore.
 
If anything fires out ahead of the main line in VA/NC it could be trouble because the low-level shear is going to be more than adequate for tornadoes.
 
Two new tornado watches are up, covering most of the mid-Atlantic. Both watches are 60/30 (can’t post the graphics from my phone).
 
warneagle said:
Tornado warned storm in the northern suburbs of Augusta, GA (my beloved place of birth). Looks more like Oklahoma than Georgia.

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On first look I was like what is going on in OKC.
 
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