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Severe Weather Threat 07/28/2021

TH2002

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SPC's D1 outlook with 10% tornado probabilities, 45% hatched severe wind probabilities and 30% hatched significant hail probabilities
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NAM forecasted sounding for NW Wisconsin (Spooner area)
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There are still some differences between the NAM and SPC models such as the amount of MLCAPE and convection that will be present.
The most likely location for significant tornadoes appears to be in northwest Wisconsin before the storms are forecast to congeal into an MCS which will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts through Wisconsin into western Michigan.
 
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Too bad that is an awful region for chasing. Surprisingly, people have actually chased there and submitted verified (later confirmed by survey) tornado reports per LSRs this year.

Despite being in the Enhanced risk, I think it's primarily a CYA for SPC because most CAM runs strongly suggest the heaviest weather will miss my area to the northeast tonight (hence the Moderate risk being where it is).
 
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