• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat 07/28/2021

TH2002

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
4,017
Reaction score
6,983
Location
California, United States
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
SPC's D1 outlook with 10% tornado probabilities, 45% hatched severe wind probabilities and 30% hatched significant hail probabilities
day1otlk72821.JPG

NAM forecasted sounding for NW Wisconsin (Spooner area)
namd1forecastedsounding.JPG

There are still some differences between the NAM and SPC models such as the amount of MLCAPE and convection that will be present.
The most likely location for significant tornadoes appears to be in northwest Wisconsin before the storms are forecast to congeal into an MCS which will bring a risk for damaging wind gusts through Wisconsin into western Michigan.
 
Messages
3,109
Reaction score
5,493
Location
Madison, WI
Too bad that is an awful region for chasing. Surprisingly, people have actually chased there and submitted verified (later confirmed by survey) tornado reports per LSRs this year.

Despite being in the Enhanced risk, I think it's primarily a CYA for SPC because most CAM runs strongly suggest the heaviest weather will miss my area to the northeast tonight (hence the Moderate risk being where it is).
 
Back
Top