Severe Weather Thread - Wednesday, 6/17/26

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Right. I know SPC hasn't outlined a area and you can call this premature if you want, i understand if so. But I think there's been enough trends on ensembles and enough consistency on deterministics to pull this. Many runs have shown a high end, anomalous parameter space for portions of Missouri into Illinois (go figure, it's 2026) and haven't really backed down on this threat at all.

I expect SPC to pull a 15% sometime tomorrow. Because I'm not sure that this cold front on Monday will big time affect this event. Maybe less instability than modeled but for the worth the kinematics are there. Uncertainty remains but this is what you're dealing with. Sounding taken from W MO around the LLJ peak. Maybe 2026 goes again with its classic red herrings, but maybe we go again next week. Remains to be seen. Watch this closely.

 

[Kds86z]

If it’s Illinois, it’s gonna happen! Lol

 

[Brice W]

I know it’s 2026. But this looks like some of your bigger outbreaks synoptically, I know I know, I’ve said it before, but you can ignore that trough and 75 dew points. That’s all I’ll say for now.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I've seen some stuff and whew the paramspace is wild for the 17th been hella consistent

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

00 European Model with a gnarly profile SPC needs to add at least a 15% next outlook cycle which is in 2hrs if I remember correctly

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Mention uncertaintys and higher-probs may be needed