Severe Weather Thread - 6/17/26 - 6/18/26

[Ozonelayer]

Yeah uh, that's certainly a sounding. GFS also suggesting discrete development which is a major red flag. Good call on the upgrade to a 30%

 

[jiharris0220]

Obviously well north of the warm front, but this is a great example of a pure shear environment, deep within the jet core in all levels of the atmosphere.
If this had even any measurable amount of thermal instability in the PBL (cold air on top of warm air at the same atm pressure) you could get a congestus cloud to put down a tornado, I’m not joking either.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Storm mode will be key to this event. Given a warm front stunting south, and shear parallel vectors, we may have to initiate on other sides of forcing mechanisms. In initial discrete mode, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible. How long we remain discrete is the question or do we congeal?

This event warrants very close watching given the parameters at play.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I can also see a idea where the W MO area initiates more discrete, and IL congeals rapidly before that area. The Euro seems to suggest this type of idea. Would make sense given the fronts at play.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[ThatGuy;P]

I’m surprised it doesn’t stretch out into further into MO

 

[N0mz]

I’m surprised it doesn’t stretch out into further into MO

Stormnet doesn’t differentiate between weak and strong tornadoes so it’s probably picking up mostly on the big QLCS threat further east