Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[Maxis_s]

Meso handoff on the Wisconsin cell

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Xyls]

Tornado might be coming together again near Boscobel in Wisconsin...

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado might be coming together again near Boscobel in Wisconsin...

 

[JayF]

9 Active tornado warnings on the board. I wish I would be able to follow this tonight. You all keep on top of it as I know you will, and I hope that people are looking here for some great information related to these storms.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Not to call premature yet but this cold, undercut sloppy look does not like the type i would expect for a Moderate. I'm not calling it off but the writing is close to being on the wall in the next 1-2 hours if there cells continue to entirely struggle.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

And to think i legitimately thought we would be seeing that type of tornado intensity yesterday. Laughable from me haha

Strong to intense tornado threat remains but given the OFB shot out and limited recovery, that only limits things even more. I'd be shocked if we see anything notable.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

Im looking at the live streams of one of the boundary riders, and all I can say is that these no longer look likely to produce.
These supercells are very elevated and like was said earlier are sliding across a surface inversion.
The best chance will be the dryline convection, but these are simply not moving fast enough to undo the directional sheer they’re feeling .

 

[jiharris0220]

This guy is close but not correct, it’s the inversion near the surface that’s the deal breaker.

 

[Muwx]

9 Active tornado warnings on the board. I wish I would be able to follow this tonight. You all keep on top of it as I know you will, and I hope that people are looking here for some great information related to these storms.

But really only 4 storms with warnings and none of them are impressive.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Im looking at the live streams of one of the boundary riders, and all I can say is that these no longer look likely to produce.
These supercells are very elevated and like was said earlier are sliding across a surface inversion.
The best chance will be the dryline convection, but these are simply not moving fast enough to undo the directional sheer they’re feeling .

I'm gonna take the risk here but the writings on the wall here. A lot of us probably think it but I don't see a reason or possible outcome that leads to any of these cold undercut supercells doing anything. The OFB limited instability a bit and was another big failure mode on top of things here. This reflectivity picture is like a 5% hail risk and if you showed me it, i would believe you. This is a situation where I fee confident enough to say this and I don't usually throw in the towel early at all.

 

[eep]

I'm gonna take the risk here but the writings on the wall here. A lot of us probably think it but I don't see a reason or possible outcome that leads to any of these cold undercut supercells doing anything. The OFB limited instability a bit and was another big failure mode on top of things here. This reflectivity picture is like a 5% hail risk and if you showed me it, i would believe you. This is a situation where I fee confident enough to say this and I don't usually throw in the towel early at all.

I think the Missouri ones have a chance, but yeah the Illinois threat is underperforming.

 

[Muwx]

I'm gonna take the risk here but the writings on the wall here. A lot of us probably think it but I don't see a reason or possible outcome that leads to any of these cold undercut supercells doing anything. The OFB limited instability a bit and was another big failure mode on top of things here. This reflectivity picture is like a 5% hail risk and if you showed me it, i would believe you. This is a situation where I fee confident enough to say this and I don't usually throw in the towel early at all.

The writing was on the wall at 7:00 local time this morning. People tried to write off the MCS but it was so obvious that was going to severely limit the ceiling.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I think the Missouri ones have a chance, but yeah the Illinois threat is underperforming.

I'm specifically talking the moderate here but given the lack of strong low level shear further west unless some really impressive storm interaction occurs, we won't see anything close to the caliber of what was expected even after the MCS today.

 

[Muwx]

I think the Missouri ones have a chance, but yeah the Illinois threat is underperforming.

They aren’t extending the tornado warnings on the Missouri ones. That area really isn’t that conducive for tornadoes.

 

[Tennie]

I think the Missouri ones have a chance, but yeah the Illinois threat is underperforming.

Considering how many times Illinois has been under the gun this year, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that more than a few Illinois residents would be glad for an underperformance.