Absolutely calibrated is stupid
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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
Absolutely calibrated is stupid
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
one could say absolutely celebrated is absolutely stupid
Sigtor is higher and more widespread than I expected.
- Thread starter
- #484
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Lmfao why do chasers even share these maps
Their brains are connected to their windshields or something. They might have CTE
SPC like is still pretty juicy
genie
Member
Engagement and attention seeking. R/Tornado is even worse. Just non-stop contaminated soundings and "I have never seen anything like this" posts.
- Thread starter
- #488
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, don't even talk about that sub lmao bunch of uneducated weenies over there and
warneagle
Member
As is often the case, the real ball-knowers aren’t on the main sub for the topic, they’re over on r/EF5.
genie
Member
Just makes me appreciate that forums like this place still exist.
- Thread starter
- #491
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Absolutely. This forum has more common sense than others.
Kds86z
Member
Anywho..
N0mz
Member
What does that mean?
genie
Member
The MCS is weakening and the atmosphere is going to really begin recovering.
What else could you possibly expect from reddit?
US_Highway15
Member
Looks like IWX is remaining vigilant on their messaging despite SPC dropping probs around here:
147 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Two rounds of storms are expected today (1-5pm EDT and
5pm-12am EDT). There is a low chance of severe weather with
the first round and a much higher chance with the second
round.
- All hazards will be possible across the entire area with round
2 including strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and
flooding. A flood watch is in effect for areas along and north
of US-24.
"An MCS moving in from Illinois is currently moving into the
region and acting to hold the warm front and better instability
south of the area. However, as this weakens this afternoon, a
strong surge of warm/moist air advection will push northward.
Thunderstorms over central Illinois will then stream in from the
southwest around 20Z. This will be the beginning of what we have
previously been referring to as "round 2" of storms with a
significant severe potential, especially damaging winds and
tornadoes. The greatest threat for severe weather will
generally be south of US-30 as a strong cold front comes in
22-23Z. This will be accompanied by extreme wind shear and
effective SRH on the order of 900 m2/s2. It will be important to
remain vigilant given the potential for strong tornadoes. Also,
while the highest tornado probabilities remain south of US-30
and west of I-69 where better instability resides, with the warm
front approaching the Michigan border where the better helicity
exists, the tornado threat could be just as high or higher if
any minor instability develops there. In addition to the tornado
threat, will also have to watch potential for wake low
development which could bring damaging winds behind the line of
storms into the late evening. Regardless of wake low
development, it will be breezy into the overnight and on
Thursday. Hail threat is a bit lower today given poor lapse
rates but any organized supercell will still be capable of
generating some large hail."
147 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Two rounds of storms are expected today (1-5pm EDT and
5pm-12am EDT). There is a low chance of severe weather with
the first round and a much higher chance with the second
round.
- All hazards will be possible across the entire area with round
2 including strong tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds and
flooding. A flood watch is in effect for areas along and north
of US-24.
"An MCS moving in from Illinois is currently moving into the
region and acting to hold the warm front and better instability
south of the area. However, as this weakens this afternoon, a
strong surge of warm/moist air advection will push northward.
Thunderstorms over central Illinois will then stream in from the
southwest around 20Z. This will be the beginning of what we have
previously been referring to as "round 2" of storms with a
significant severe potential, especially damaging winds and
tornadoes. The greatest threat for severe weather will
generally be south of US-30 as a strong cold front comes in
22-23Z. This will be accompanied by extreme wind shear and
effective SRH on the order of 900 m2/s2. It will be important to
remain vigilant given the potential for strong tornadoes. Also,
while the highest tornado probabilities remain south of US-30
and west of I-69 where better instability resides, with the warm
front approaching the Michigan border where the better helicity
exists, the tornado threat could be just as high or higher if
any minor instability develops there. In addition to the tornado
threat, will also have to watch potential for wake low
development which could bring damaging winds behind the line of
storms into the late evening. Regardless of wake low
development, it will be breezy into the overnight and on
Thursday. Hail threat is a bit lower today given poor lapse
rates but any organized supercell will still be capable of
generating some large hail."
cincywx
Member
US_Highway15
Member
The Quad Cities moreso is clearing out pretty fast, but this is moving eastward a bit.
TornadoFan
Member
Wonder if we'll get a PDS watch.