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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

Jbop said:
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When I wrote last night that every met in these areas should be properly conveying the potential threat, this is exactly what I want to see. I think drawing the comparison to high-end Dixie events is a smart way to convey to normies that this isn’t your typical run-of-the-mill tornado event for this area. It’s an incredibly dangerous one that we almost never see in this area.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Wonder if NWS Chicago will be pushing for the SPC to issue a Day 2 High with CIG 2 TOR probs.
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I think you see a CIG 3 use in that case given the potential environment. As WeathermanLeprechaun just said, not only are violent tornadoes in-play, but we’re talking about the potential for particularly violent and damaging tornadoes up to EF-5 intensity.

Even if we don’t get a Day 2 upgrade to high later today, I do think they would be justified in using a CIG3 highlight in the current moderate risk area.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
The 09z RAP is a lot crazier than the 06z HRRR. It's actually unbelievable. 06z HRRR helicity swaths were not nearly what you'd expect with a set up like this. Definitely makes me think it sees some sort of fly in the ointment. Let's see if the 12z resolves that issue and adds a little more clarity.

View attachment 53462
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I mean I'll just say it, that hodograph looks something straight out of 4/27. Not saying that'll happen, but man that's absurd.
 
Talking about my area now, this is just one of the most unique setups I've ever seen. Usually with how much rain would be coming through (the first MCS), you'd see the severe weather threat go out of the window, but the HRRR shows my CWA (at least with the helicity swaths) get shellacked still with an absurd embedded supercell coming through, and embedded tornados all around.
CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2026061612-HRRR-NIL-prec-radar-17-43-100.gif

Here's IWX's AFD this morning. Even they seem a bit confused.

"The eventual location of the cold front Tuesday night is forecast
down in MO, but the front`s location later in the day and into the
overnight has been trending northward over the last couple of the
GFS runs. Even the HRRR attempts to push the warm front into the
area starting around 22z Wednesday evening. However, both the HRRR
and the NAM attempt to push what appears to be an MCS into the area
around midday as a vort max develops overhead. If this puts out a
cold pool, it may be tough get destabilization/recovery ahead of the
following cold front. If we do, the low level jet is very strong and
low level turning appears very conducive to a damaging wind and
tornado environment. But again, trying to get parcels up into the
better shear with limited instability may be difficult. Given the
MCS and then squall line evolution, this may be enough to get heavy
rain across the area. We`ve been so dry so that we can probably take
some rain into the soils. Models have about a 20 to 40 percent
chance of 2 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 12z Thursday, which is
helped along by the PWATs reaching 2 inches Wednesday evening as the
theta-e plume swings through.

One other aspect of this is that there is a 17 mb pressure fall in
6 hrs over the area Wednesday evening, which appears to be as
the first MCS is leaving the area. Usually models display the
possibility of a wake low by indicating subsidence in model
soundings, but that doesn`t appear to be the case in HRRR
soundings. This may may be an indication it doesn`t happen.
Something to keep an eye on."

As a whole, if this scenario were to happen, this could be bad, simply because casuals and people who aren't plugged in will think we're done and they don't need to be paying attention.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
I think you see a CIG 3 use in that case given the potential environment. As WeathermanLeprechaun just said, not only are violent tornadoes in-play, but we’re talking about the potential for particularly violent and damaging tornadoes up to EF-5 intensity.

Even if we don’t get a Day 2 upgrade to high later today, I do think they would be justified in using a CIG3 highlight in the current moderate risk area.
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I don't want to directly say this, but yes, I'm hinting at this type. The kinematics tomorrow are established with some of the more violent tornadoes of the decade. Just wanna lay it out, the potential is there.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I mean I'll just say it, that hodograph looks something straight out of 4/27. Not saying that'll happen, but man that's absurd.
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Thermodynamics aren't anywhere near as impressive as 4/27 and both the orientation of the front and the size of the area would prevent anything like that from happening, but the kinematics are definitely up there with the outflow boundary's soundings from that day.
 
Maxis_s said:
Thermodynamics aren't anywhere near as impressive as 4/27 and both the orientation of the front and the size of the area would prevent anything like that from happening, but the kinematics are definitely up there with the outflow boundary's soundings from that day.
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Oh yeah I know, I'm just saying that hodograph, the size of it was just up there.
 
Still remarkable consistency and agreement between the cam models, practically unchanged from a day and a half ago.

Like I said last night, I really don’t expect any notable trends up or down for the remaining time leading up to this event.
The cams have a profound understanding of the environment they’re modeling, and they’re not going to deviate from that.

The thing about large scale tornado outbreaks is that they’re actually pretty easy to forecast and are blatantly obvious to occur. It’s because the Synoptics and underlying mesoscale dynamics are so locked in that it’s difficult to have any real uncertainty between cams. The real question is just how bad will it be.

I would expect a high risk to be issued, likely somewhere between 0z today or 12z tomorrow. No real reason to hold it back other than spatial extent (uncertainty with the northward progression of the warm front and southern extent of tornado capable convection).
 
Normally I would give an in depth analysis of the forcast, but everything has already been said. I expect a tornado outbreak tomorrow because of 2 things:

-The dryline is diffuse, which should prevent overconvection

-The kinematics mean any established supercell in the main risk area can produce an intense to violent tornado

I would be an advocate for a HIGH risk, a CIG3, or both. Just incredible environment tomorrow.
 
I just simply don’t see a situation playing out where there isn’t at least one intense tornado tomorrow. Even if it lines out super fast and has no prefrontal convection, you’re still going to have a giant line interacting with extremely volatile kinematics across a very wide area. The floor of this event is the comparable to the ceiling of many others. The ceiling is something I don’t even want to think about.
 
slenker said:
I just simply don’t see a situation playing out where there isn’t at least one intense tornado tomorrow. Even if it lines out super fast and has no prefrontal convection, you’re still going to have a giant line interacting with extremely volatile kinematics across a very wide area. The floor of this event is the comparable to the ceiling of many others. The ceiling is something I don’t even want to think about.
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Im going to outright ask: what would the ceiling of this event be comparable to?
 
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