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Severe weather Feb 10-13th

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible.

...Gulf States...

Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over
southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms
have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent
just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity
should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1
period.

Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which
will allow the surface front currently draped across central
LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily
oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest
model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary
driver in convective development through the period, though
convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal
zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to
develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not
entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across
southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z
exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and
150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells
capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these
conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not
completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to
buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of
the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging
wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection
immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the
primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm
front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into
western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage
across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added
SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/11/2024
Click to expand...



SPC2.jpg

SPCTOR2.jpg
 
Seems like confidence has increased for tomorrow's activity for the SPC. Still not confident about the afternoon stuff myself but we shall see.

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a
few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on
Monday.

...Southeast...
An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on
Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates
eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low
will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian
Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf
Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters
of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front.
These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward
across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near
the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the
60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist
sector as surface temperatures gradually warm.

The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move
eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern
edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist
sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast
soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia
have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the
strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to
be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining
in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be
favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a
few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the
late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with
a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward
into South Carolina.

..Broyles.. 02/11/2024
Click to expand...
 
Yeah your biggest threat today looks like from Hattiesburg to Selma to Auburn.

Lock and load it's gunna be a long one in south Alabama I'm afraid. Surface charts have winds backed a ton at the surface around that area. Will see if it sticks, but right now my bets are there. Anything from Jefferson county north looks elevated, this is just for this afternoon btw. Going to continue watching radar trends.

Hopefully my amateur prediction isnt too bad hahah
 
Nam 3k sounding for noon tomorrow for central AL. It's a point-sounding, not a box-sounding, but shows a localized very problematic look for tomorrow. SRH is near maxed out (877 for eff inflow layer), hodo is crazy, and STP is very high, not to mention 1k+ CAPE.

1707661196377.png
 
wx_guy said:
Nam 3k sounding for noon tomorrow for central AL. It's a point-sounding, not a box-sounding, but shows a localized very problematic look for tomorrow. SRH is near maxed out (877 for eff inflow layer), hodo is crazy, and STP is very high, not to mention 1k+ CAPE.

View attachment 23847
Click to expand...
Got one to top this lol. This is a sounding near Jackson Mississippi today lol.
 
wx_guy said:
Nam 3k sounding for noon tomorrow for central AL. It's a point-sounding, not a box-sounding, but shows a localized very problematic look for tomorrow. SRH is near maxed out (877 for eff inflow layer), hodo is crazy, and STP is very high, not to mention 1k+ CAPE.

View attachment 23847
Click to expand...
Yeeesh. Once again, a conditional threat that will have to be eyed closely thanks to a volatile environment. A little bit of convective contamination there but yeah the soundings from that area have a bad look.
 
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