Severe weather Feb 10-13th

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm ready.

Simulated radar screams supercells. You can see the hook on some of them. Of course not every one of these will not produce tornadoes and may not be any tommorow may just be a bunch of elevated hailers, but I'm ready!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Also this.

 

[Clancy]

I'm ready.

Simulated radar screams supercells. You can see the hook on some of them. Of course not every one of these will not produce tornadoes and may not be any tommorow may just be a bunch of elevated hailers, but I'm ready!

NAM 3km has the warm front further north than I figured it might be, and if those storms (which have been consistently progged moving along I-20, of course) move along that northern edge and remain surface-based, it could probably produce a few nasty surprises.

 

[Clancy]

15Z SREF with a 45% sigtor ingredients corridor over Birmingham at 12Z Monday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

15Z SREF with a 45% sigtor ingredients corridor over Birmingham at 12Z Monday.
View attachment 23827

Holy moly

 

[JPWX]

I love how MEG is simply disregarding the severe weather potential tomorrow.

 

[warneagle]

Not entirely sold on tonight’s threat but if these things can get rooted to the surface with these kind of hodographs it’s gonna be game on.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

15Z SREF with a 45% sigtor ingredients corridor over Birmingham at 12Z Monday.
View attachment 23827

SREF sig tor ingredients clowns on that same corridor at 21z Sunday lol. Man. I hope we don't have multiple waves with chance for sig tornadoes lol.

I'm going to have to get me a power nap at 12 pm tommorow and then get up at around 2 or 3 to see the action and then go to sleep and wake up early for the next round.

Timing of how things evolve will be key tommorow. 21z rap looks like a mess

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Clancy]

Parts of MS would be the place to chase, though it looks like the peak of the Sunday activity may come well after dark. Wouldn't want to be out chasing at 11 PM in West Alabama, that's for sure.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That environment tommorow on the 00z hrrr is really good.

Can it be utilized to the max though...I'm not sure it will be.

 

[Clancy]

That environment tommorow on the 00z hrrr is really good.

Can it be utilized to the max though...I'm not sure it will be.

Seems pretty empty (has been for the last several runs), perhaps partly due to lack of forcing? As far as CAMs go, it seems like boundary-riders remain the best bet for severe convection Sunday evening, but obviously if anything maintains itself in the open warm sector it'd be in a good environment.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems pretty empty (has been for the last several runs), perhaps partly due to lack of forcing? As far as CAMs go, it seems like boundary-riders remain the best bet for severe convection Sunday evening, but obviously if anything maintains itself in the open warm sector it'd be in a good environment.

Not sure, there's plenty of subtle forcing it seems, and it shows convection kicking off right around peak heating. 1-2 o'clock. Maybe it's not picking up well on it

 

[wx_guy]

Been busy this week in general, but the setup is looking at least somewhat interesting for tomorrow and Monday. Here's some SREF analysis as of the new 21z run:


A significant band of 45% Signature Tornado Probabilities shows up in a corridor (highlighted in the golden-yellow color) tomorrow afternoon across LA and MS and into the overnight 2-4 AM hours in Western and Central Alabama.





Precipitable Water values of over 1.5 inches gives moisture needed, so finding it shouldn't be a problem with this system like it has been with some recent systems (image again, is from the overnight Sunday night/Monday morning):




That corridor (at 12z) in Western/Central AL has about 750 median CAPE, which is not very high but high enough to get storms going.





Almost certain probabilities for > 100 Helicity at 1 km, so this shows storms would have a good propensity to rotate:




The 24-hour calibrated thunderstorm probabilities are shown below. The SPC uses the previous 24 hours of model guidance to generate likelihood of thunderstorms.








All put together, it looks like Mississippi and Alabama have an overnight threat tomorrow night, but the parameters are not super strong yet, at least according to this data. Still, night time threats in the Deep South always make me pay attention more.

 

[Clancy]

WW expected for parts of TX this evening.

 

[Timhsv]

Interesting and a increased threat on Sunday. Just chatted with B. Adair. He's going to be centered in Vicksburg, MS. I noticed NAM CAPES in the 2,000 j/kg back in SW MS as well.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of TX.

 

[wx_guy]

Some more analysis from the 0z HREF (which combines most of the CAMs into an ensemble) that just came in. I'll probably analyze some Soundings (observed and model) tomorrow.

Here's the forecast updraft intensity at 3z Monday morning (late Sunday night). Most of the thunderstorm potential and severe potential should be in these zones, if the ensemble verifies. (Do note, in later hours this zone shifts east and south.)






The STP forecast valid for Monday morning at 12z has central AL at somewhat of a crosshair.







Here's the mean ensemble surface-based CAPE for overnight Sunday/Monday. There's a decent area with 1k-2k CAPE, and at least a few updraft helicity swaths embedded within that.





Also of note is a second/third round in the afternoon on Monday in AL, GA, and FL. As the updraft marks in the last map show, it's possible some of the dynamics may not align perfectly to produce, so we'll have to see how that goes.