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Severe WX Severe Weather Discussion May 25 - 27 2026

Casual tornado outbreak ongoing in Northern Mexico with multiple discrete supercells.
The one near Del Rio just south of the border is most certainly a sig and another one just SW of Sabinas Mexico probably has one down as well.
You can thank the high deep layer shear, high vertical instability, and veered vertical wind profiles that this high CAPE/low shear day is actually producing.
1779831660960.png1779831710827.png
 
Casual tornado outbreak ongoing in Northern Mexico with multiple discrete supercells.
The one near Del Rio just south of the border is most certainly a sig and another one just SW of Sabinas Mexico probably has one down as well.
You can thank the high deep layer shear, high vertical instability, and veered vertical wind profiles that this high CAPE/low shear day is actually producing.
View attachment 53057View attachment 53058
Any chasers could easily bag a tor near the border of mexico today probably.
 
Interesting how we get all these well-organized discrete supercells in this nondescript summer-like regime, while on so many "synoptically evident/outbreak" days lately we get convective chaos, outflows crashing into each other, and "needle in a haystack" tornadoes.
 
Interesting how we get all these well-organized discrete supercells in this nondescript summer-like regime, while on so many "synoptically evident/outbreak" days lately we get convective chaos, outflows crashing into each other, and "needle in a haystack" tornadoes.
Broader forcing and weaker flow is the reason. I've touched on this before. We're lucky the pattern never favors extremely favorable troughs because we get many events with discrete storms but few of those are ever timed with dangerous low level shear. I wonder if that's why 2011 was so impressive. Discrete regimes happened very frequently and had major troughs associated with them, there was rarely ever a tendency for QLCS that year.
 
Broader forcing and weaker flow is the reason. I've touched on this before. We're lucky the pattern never favors extremely favorable troughs because we get many events with discrete storms but few of those are ever timed with dangerous low level shear. I wonder if that's why 2011 was so impressive. Discrete regimes happened very frequently and had major troughs associated with them, there was rarely ever a tendency for QLCS that year.
And considering just how horrifically destructive 2011 was, we should be thankful that it's rare for favorable patterns to line up as often as they tended to do that year!
 
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