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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

Something interesting for the storms in KS and MO... the line of storms further north has an interesting feature showing up on water vapor, especially and the mid and upper levels, where ribbons of dryer air are sandwiched between moister air behind the line. Depending on how slow this translates east vs the movement of the storms further southwest, it may be another tricky issue for the storms.
 
Point being proven: echo tops are higher near Ponca City due to numerous shower interactions. Not saying this will automatically lead to a mature supercell whatsoever, but those mergers will help a updraft sustain a lot better.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Sorry for quoting twice :/ could've added this in prev post

and also, to add, that this virtually remains the same in SE KS but cells have required mergers to mature up there. Right now on this dryline, there is convection but not much merging which would be a very subtle forcing mechanism in itself. I'd watch for mergers moreso than individual updrafts because no updraft will power through those mid levels alone without help.
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Good analysis. I think the updrafts just east of Ponca City may be the ones to do it now though.
 
Maxis_s said:
Good analysis. I think the updrafts just east of Ponca City may be the ones to do it now though.
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And that's what my latest post touches on, regarding what I mentioned about mergers. That close pack of showers interacting with the main updraft may get it done here. I have to say, that was some of my better analysis in a bit LOL
 
Explosive development near Kaw City, OK. Assuming this cell maintains itself now due to these mergers, strong to intense tornado threat will begin to increase once it fully matures with the increasing LLJ. Same goes for SE KS, but eastward extent of that supercell is slightly uncertain.
 
If i was chasing, i would've dropped the SE KS storm if it was looking relatively unimpressive. Those nudgers have paid off long term an significant tornadogenesis is a possibility next 10-20 minutes given increasing inflow signature. Combine this with the environment, and there could be issues.
 
Weatherguyx said:
Was thinking it looked more like something out of a movie, but I'm no expert.
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It's fine, not easy to tell if you're not used to seeing that type of thing. The way the clouds are moving in that image isn't realistic and the hail is moving against the direction of rotation. Also, if there was two tornadoes that stout that close together, we'd have heard about it by now.
 
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