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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

i would not be surprised at a D3 MDT later, given the wording is already explicitly hinting at likely greater than EF2 intensity here. "particularly damaging" is one I've not heard in their outlooks, but if I had to guess, probably hinting at EF3+. I could see a upgrade in the afternoon to moderate if confidence is high enough.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
i would not be surprised at a D3 MDT later, given the wording is already explicitly hinting at likely greater than EF2 intensity here. "particularly damaging" is one I've not heard in their outlooks, but if I had to guess, probably hinting at EF3+. I could see a upgrade in the afternoon to moderate if confidence is high enough.
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yeah, that wording is not something I've seen much if at all the "a few long tracked particularly damaging tornadoes" really grabbed my eyes
 
genuinely surprised to wake up to a D3 ENH, I thought for sure they would pull a MOD based on the model trends for Monday.
Seems like they're playing it safe until the crapvection question is resolved but honestly...I think there's enough model consensus to say it is.

Fully expect at least a D2 MOD tomorrow.
 
lake.effect said:
genuinely surprised to wake up to a D3 ENH, I thought for sure they would pull a MOD based on the model trends for Monday.
Seems like they're playing it safe until the crapvection question is resolved but honestly...I think there's enough model consensus to say it is.

Fully expect at least a D2 MOD tomorrow.
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I think without question we see a MOD for tomorrow. This has by far been the most consistent setup of the year imo based on the model runs. I’m interested to see how it further progresses…
 
lake.effect said:
genuinely surprised to wake up to a D3 ENH, I thought for sure they would pull a MOD based on the model trends for Monday.
Seems like they're playing it safe until the crapvection question is resolved but honestly...I think there's enough model consensus to say it is.

Fully expect at least a D2 MOD tomorrow.
Click to expand...
45 probs bout close
Moderate risk u can get. Euro caving to nam is worrisome say least
 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
531 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of the Big Bend of Florida and south central and
southwest Georgia.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.


--------------------------------------------------
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
i would not be surprised at a D3 MDT later, given the wording is already explicitly hinting at likely greater than EF2 intensity here. "particularly damaging" is one I've not heard in their outlooks, but if I had to guess, probably hinting at EF3+. I could see a upgrade in the afternoon to moderate if confidence is high enough.
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if you had to guess, where would the mdt be?
 
N0mz said:
To be fair, the forum back then seemed much more Dixie-centric, and a lot of them were without power that day.

Also, the 21z RAP is pretty extreme for Sunday, actually. SBCIN @ 00z is zero basically across the board.
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Some of us were without power for 8+ days.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Personally, i can see a window for S KS/N OK to convect tomorrow and HRRR tries to initiate convection but fails to do so given the stout cap. I'd eye that area closely, with potential for a intense tornado or two from any mature supercell.
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HRRR fired on the 12z. Conditional sig all hazards in C KS and heading down south too.
 
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