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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

Just looking a little into voodoo land, seems like there's a favorable pattern for a more significant event for the southeast with a possibly even more primed instability profile if voodoo land comes true. But it's called voodoo land for a reason. Maybe a day 8 risk area by Thursday ?
 
Still can't attach images (I assume), but the 12Z GFS is as ominous as I've seen it this year, especially for Sunday-Monday. Compact, negatively tilted wave with the exit region ejecting out over the warm sector at peak heating, which is what has been missing in a lot of the setups thus far this year. Ample instability across a large area both days, as well.
 
Sunday peaks my interest plenty now in the Plains and I mentioned this day due to a strong signal from ASTORP a few days ago before it was much on the radar. It rapidly uptrended, and now there's some interesting potential. That 12z GFS has nearly 5k SBCAPE as a loaded gun environment in E OK on Sunday. The only reason probabilities or wording isn't stronger is due to uncertainty of CI. With a strong LLJ in place, a potent environment will be there but will there be forcing to manage initiation here?

AS for Monday, a widespread svr event is on the table. Decent potential in the Midwest assuming good moisture return and a strong LLJ accompanying this feature. This will extend down into areas of Dixie too.

These two days need close monitoring. Sunday has a decent ceiling and so does Monday. This is looking convincing.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Still can't attach images (I assume), but the 12Z GFS is as ominous as I've seen it this year, especially for Sunday-Monday. Compact, negatively tilted wave with the exit region ejecting out over the warm sector at peak heating, which is what has been missing in a lot of the setups thus far this year. Ample instability across a large area both days, as well.
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The capping bias holds the GFS back but it is just a classic svr sequence on both days. Wonder how 18z GFS is gonna go here as it rolls in.
 
I've seen some meteorologists raise some big eyebrows at 4/27 (even ignoring it's awful coincidential date). Notably it looks like if the pattern were to hold it would also be anomalous for the region, with the closest system being 1998 Tennessee outbreak.
 
eep said:
I've seen some meteorologists raise some big eyebrows at 4/27 (even ignoring it's awful coincidential date). Notably it looks like if the pattern were to hold it would also be anomalous for the region, with the closest system being 1998 Tennessee outbreak.
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Choo Choo Vintage GIF by US National Archives

All aboard the hype train
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Still can't attach images (I assume), but the 12Z GFS is as ominous as I've seen it this year, especially for Sunday-Monday. Compact, negatively tilted wave with the exit region ejecting out over the warm sector at peak heating, which is what has been missing in a lot of the setups thus far this year. Ample instability across a large area both days, as well.
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As you noted, that’s been MIA this year. That timing of nosing into, then further punching into the warm sector, right at peak heating is always an ominous look.
 
I'm telling you that this trough ejection is notorious for high end svr weather days in the Plains. Right now, the pattern suggests a high end environment, but what utilitizes that environment? Until then, I'd hold off on the 30% but make no question of it, there's a 50/50 we see a 30% tmrw outlined for Sunday. ASTORP has a 5% tor here but I remember hearing it takes certain things like probability of CI into account? That's a interesting feature imo.

I'd like to note that some sort of NEish trend for Monday has taken place rapidly, and it seems like the main AOI of interest may be the Midwest given the less concentration of low level shear in Mississippi. Doesn't take away that there shill still be a interesting severe threat here. I'm less confident on Monday due to a few reasons atm but it's certainly a setup for all hazards, I'll give you that.

Gonna signal @andyhb here for this one, really curious on your initial thoughts?
 
eep said:
I've seen some meteorologists raise some big eyebrows at 4/27 (even ignoring it's awful coincidential date). Notably it looks like if the pattern were to hold it would also be anomalous for the region, with the closest system being 1998 Tennessee outbreak.
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Yeah, I think both the 26th and 27th could earn a 30% outline prior to getting into the 3 days out.
 
I also will say that it's not all that surprising that late april looks good, we're pretty much entering optimum season with not a lot of synoptic problems that other years have seen.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I'm telling you that this trough ejection is notorious for high end svr weather days in the Plains. Right now, the pattern suggests a high end environment, but what utilitizes that environment? Until then, I'd hold off on the 30% but make no question of it, there's a 50/50 we see a 30% tmrw outlined for Sunday. ASTORP has a 5% tor here but I remember hearing it takes certain things like probability of CI into account? That's a interesting feature imo.

I'd like to note that some sort of NEish trend for Monday has taken place rapidly, and it seems like the main AOI of interest may be the Midwest given the less concentration of low level shear in Mississippi. Doesn't take away that there shill still be a interesting severe threat here. I'm less confident on Monday due to a few reasons atm but it's certainly a setup for all hazards, I'll give you that.

Gonna signal @andyhb here for this one, really curious on your initial thoughts?
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Definitely very classic I-35 high end vibes and high end presentation on the 18z GFS. Very stout capping but a detail that shouldnt be taken too seriously at this range. Time to see if this setup can hold up or if we downtrend like most the other events so far this year.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Yeah, that's not a ideal look for Sunday on the 18z GFS. Despite the lack of cells firing due to capping bias as mentioned, that environment ahead of the dryline is as classic as it gets for a Plains event. Concerns rising. I might honestly ask Broyles his thoughts on this one..
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Asked him and due to certain reasons, he must abstain from saying much due to potentially contradicting the outlooks but he did note a very busy period at store.
 
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