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Severe Weather 4/17/26

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N0mz said:
Do you know what other day about 10 months ago went mdt for wind the day of with big time conditional tornado threat??
Click to expand...
June 20, no? For those unaware that day spawned the completely out-of-nowhere Enderlin EF5.
 
ITY. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED, INCLUDING LARGE TO VERY LARGE (I.E. 3"+ HAIL), STRONG TO
INTENSE TORNADOES, AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STORM INTERACTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE TORNADO RISK, WITH THE INITIALLY
DISCRETE MODE LIKELY BECOMING MESSY QUICKLY.
 
N0mz said:
Do you know what other day about 10 months ago went mdt for wind the day of with big time conditional tornado threat??
Click to expand...
I might get owned but I distinctly remember that tornadoes were on the table for Enderlin, just conditional. The notable difference is that hailstorm supercells are less conducive for tornadoes than the supercells that fired on 6/20.
 
N0mz said:
Yep. Wouldn’t really call it out-of-nowhere, it was evident for a couple days the parameter space was absurd. Unless you’re talking about the rating upgrade lol.
Click to expand...
I mean the fact that an EF5 even happened. Most people were expecting the next 5 to come out of a super outbreak, and then Enderlin comes out of a primarily wind-threat and very conditional day. Tornadoes were on the table, just not violent ones.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0473
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Iowa...southeastern
Minnesota...southern/western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 171648Z - 171915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for supercells capable of all
hazards.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show two areas of cumulus
increasing near the cold front/dry line in north-central
Iowa/southern Minnesota and further east in a confluence band in
northeastern Iowa. A few attempts are note on radar near the front
over the last 30 minutes. Across the open warm sector in
central/eastern Iowa into southern WI/northern Illinois, strong warm
air advection within the 40-45 kt southerly LLJ is ongoing with
moderate to strong MLCAPE and strong deep layer shear profiles
supportive of supercells. Uncertainty remains in what the exact
evolution of storms will be. Two scenarios are possible: initial
supercell development in eastern Iowa ahead of the front and
supercell development along the cold front.

Confidence is highest that there will be development further west
along the cold front, which will initially be supercelluar given,
the favorable profiles. The time period for more discrete supercells
may be cut short across this region as the cold front undercuts
convection. Nonetheless, initially large to very large hail will be
possible with an increasing tornado threat as convection matures. As
more clustering/upscale growth occurs, threat to damaging winds will
increase with a line embedded tornado threat continuing through the
afternoon/evening.

Further east, isolated supercells may develop within the open warm
sector across northeastern Iowa nearer to the warm front. These
would also be capable of large to very large hail. Should they
persist, there would also be enhanced potential for strong tornadoes
given the SRH rich environment.

A Tornado watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

Tornado Impact: 140-170 MPH
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
I mean the fact that an EF5 even happened. Most people were expecting the next 5 to come out of a super outbreak, and then Enderlin comes out of a primarily wind-threat and very conditional day. Tornadoes were on the table, just not violent ones.
Click to expand...
Not to go too far off topic but I remember violent tornadoes being possible if a supercell got going in the OWS. The parameter space was insane; RAP sounding attached below.

 
Wind is picking up right now, here's hoping cells don't develop so early they develop on top of or just to the west of me (most models show storms popping off to the east).
 
Kds86z said:
Max 170
Click to expand...

Confidence is highest that there will be development further west
along the cold front, which will initially be supercelluar given,
the favorable profiles. The time period for more discrete supercells
may be cut short across this region as the cold front undercuts
convection. Nonetheless, initially large to very large hail will be
possible with an increasing tornado threat as convection matures. As
more clustering/upscale growth occurs, threat to damaging winds will
increase with a line embedded tornado threat continuing through the
afternoon/evening.

Further east, isolated supercells may develop within the open warm
sector across northeastern Iowa nearer to the warm front. These
would also be capable of large to very large hail. Should they
persist, there would also be enhanced potential for strong tornadoes
given the SRH rich environment.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Tornado Impact: 140-170 MPH
Click to expand...
Are they seeing something we aren't? I keep seeing people say that the mode will more than likely be linear and/or messy, which the SPC agrees with in their most recent D1.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Are they seeing something we aren't? I keep seeing people say that the mode will more than likely be linear and/or messy, which the SPC agrees with in their most recent D1.
Click to expand...
Nevermind, it's an if. Conditional.
 
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