Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[Tennie]

not a bu$t by any means but also didn’t live up to the moderate risk hype that it was as getting here and elsewhere this morning. Also, second straight day the the SPC had a bad day forecasting the plains. I am very curious to see how the lack of substantial convection impacts tomorrows threat

The SPC was right to hold off on a risk upgrade earlier today based on concerns of storms going upscale. It just goes to show that one should not only look at factors that could be favorable for severe weather, but also factors that could be unfavorable as well, and take them all into consideration. You could have the potentially most unstable environment ever recorded, but if there's even one single thing preventing things from taking off, then you're not going to get the event to achieve its ceiling.

 

[eep]

If I recall correctly, this happened on May 18, 2025 with the Greensburg/Plevns supercell.

Not to that degree... Probably a more modest threat like yesterday if it stays discrete and maintains itself.

 

[Kds86z]

@buckeye05

 

[Tennie]

There's a radar-confirmed tornado near Waterford, WI.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I do have to chuckle at how the SPC gets zero credit for verifying perfectly with hail and wind. Just look at all those hail cores.

 

[speedbump305]

Not to that degree... Probably a more modest threat like yesterday if it stays discrete and maintains itself.

Oh definitely not to that degree. But I just remember it being a very similar example.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WesL]

The bu$t filter is super annoying and needs to go away. It completely botched Fred’s legendary post the night before the 4/27/11 super outbreak because he used the word in the post.

I'm happy to forward the messages and reports every time someone goes talking bust...

Yeah... as funny as the filter was at first, I honestly agree now that it's just annoying and unnecessary by this point. Filter should either be optional, much like how users can maintain lists of ignored users, or at least changed to where it only applies in active Severe WX threads.

Fred's post looks fine to me. This was fixed a while back. That was posted by TW Archive and we added it and the mets to an exception list.

Bust Bust Bust

 

[Kds86z]

I think SPC did good today except for the OK/TX area

 

[Tennie]

Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency

Sounds more like you're trying to create a new tongue-twister, LOL!

 

[TH2002]

@buckeye05

Reminds me a lot of the Smithfield, NY EF2 (should have been rated EF3 or even low-end EF4, but that's another story) from back in 2014.

 

[jackhutwx]

okay ive been busy like all day, could someone please summarize what happened today lol

 

[A Guy]

I get a kick out of it, but I'm active on Reddit where that tornado community has the word entirely blocked and gives people lifetime bans for using it. This site's approach is much better. I definitely think there are much better words you can use to describe a life threatening event underperforming or failing to verify.

Thinking back a couple of years:

"bu$t" had pretty well understood original usage of an unsuccessful chase (Dan Robinson recently mentioned how he bu$ted every day in the May '03 sequence, an impressive achievement in itself). Understandably, this was extended to mean a day that underperforms making individual bu$t chases far more likely.

I think the usage from some chasers when what diurnal setup was expected largely fails and they weren't around to catch the day's one significant tornado that formed after dark is understandable - even if you disagree with it. Defining it as 'no tornadoes at all' seems to be pretty much restricted to a few posters on this forum.

While I'd modify that last statement (and r/tornado has a very high proportion of rubbish for a supposedly 'serious' subreddit) I retain the position that people should be free to use it to describe a forecast-to-outcome mismatch as they wish.

 

[WesL]

Sounds more like you're trying to create a new tongue-twister, LOL!

#TikTokTrend

 

[Tennie]

TDS near Eagle Lake, WI. Racine might come under the gun.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[zath]

Per the TMKE radar, the storm near Waterford, WI to Union Grove, WI latched on to a boundary near Waterford and the meso keeps trying to anchor along and zip southeast down it. May be a frequent off and on again tornado until it gets closer to the waterfront between Kenosha and Racine.

 

[ColdFront]

I'm happy to forward the messages and reports every time someone goes talking bust...

Not trying to get into a back and forth here, but if someone gets so offended that another user used the term “bu$t”, that they report it to a moderator, says more about that person than it does the person saying something was a bu$t.

Again, I’m sure those messages are annoying for you, but the people reporting are acting like 5th graders.

If it means we can use the term again, sure, send them my way.

 

[GXSC]

Dang, there was a time in 2024 when I was thinking about moving specifically to Muskegon, MI for a better climate and less tornadoes. And they get 2 tornado warnings within the span of a year.

 

[WesL]

The Bust Wars were real and ugly. Annoying actually.