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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

3CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO
REMAIN DISCRETE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK UPGRADE. NONETHELESS, SHOULD A DOMINANT
SUPERCELL BECOME SUSTAINED AND DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI,
A SUSTAINED AND INTENSE TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON T
 
MD out for the TX/OK/KS threat

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 423

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

The jist:

35-45 kts of effective bulk shear (per latest mesoanalysis) will
support initial supercells, with very large to giant hail (up to 3-4
inches in diameter) likely given the aforementioned steep mid-level
lapse rates, ample buoyancy within the hail growth zone, and
elongated hodographs. A few tornadoes (some potentially strong) are
also possible, especially with any supercells that can remain
largely discrete into the evening hours when a strengthening
nocturnal low-level jet will yield enlarged, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs. A Tornado Watch will be needed by 21z to cover
this threat.
Click to expand...
 
3.) Confidence is still too low for supercells across the Midwest to
remain discrete for long periods of time, which would warrant a
Categorical Moderate risk upgrade. Nonetheless, should a dominant
supercell become sustained and discrete for at least a few hours,
especially along the warm front over northeast IA into southern WI,
a sustained and intense tornado will be possible.

The rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track.
Click to expand...

via the new day 1
 
buckeye05 said:
Yup that single home is what has me not ruling out EF3. I’m personally leaning more towards high EF2 but we’ll see.

EDIT: Sounds like they went with mid range EF2. There was either some pretty frail construction or they just played it really conservative,
Click to expand...
I'm inclined to agree with the high-end EF2 estimate. Personally I would have gone with 130-135 mph, but a lot of ratings this year have been very conservative.
 
Maybe I should let my family in Waterloo know about this cell... they usually aren't worried about severe weather. This whole situation reminds me of some of the accounts I've read about Parkersburg 2008, especially since that cell was apparently also visible all the way down here.
 
cincywx said:
via the new day 1
Click to expand...
I think the fact we haven’t had a significant outbreak in a while, and the cams have been playing the game too, has led to some possibly misplaced hype amongst the community with this system.

I try to always think about what Cam Nixon says, CAMs are junk food.

These warm front conditional set ups are so annoying this year.
 
GXSC said:
Maybe I should let my family in Waterloo know about this cell... they usually aren't worried about severe weather. This whole situation reminds me of some of the accounts I've read about Parkersburg 2008, especially since that cell was apparently also visible all the way down here.
Click to expand...
Definitely warn Waterloo family. At the very least it's going to be dropping huge hail soon, if it isn't already
 
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