• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

WhirlingWx said:
Also looking S of Warrenton, MO (closer to the St. Louis metro) as an area of storms potentially wrapping up
Click to expand...
I thought it would wrap up more on velocity after this frame but looks like it's behaved for now.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20260315_154027_RadarScope~2.jpg
    Screenshot_20260315_154027_RadarScope~2.jpg
    405.7 KB · Views: 0
tornado examiner said:
Who else thinks tomorrow’s tornado threat is being drastically overblown? It’s very conditional and will likely not go high risk. Not even for wind.
Click to expand...
While no forecast is ever guaranteed, pretty much all indications are that the threat tomorrow is rather substantial, and particularly rare for the Mid-Atlantic. Tornado risk will exist within the QLCS, which is likely to cellularize with time, not to mention possible pre-frontal convection. From the standpoint of the SPC forecast, I don't think it's overblown at all - a 15% with CIG1 hatching seems more than adequate given what we know the environment will be like tomorrow.
 
tornado examiner said:
I’ve seen others point things out. Saying it’s not high risk material.
I’m not really saying anything conclusive just what I’ve been observing. I don’t really view models myself. It’s why I’m asking.
Click to expand...
No matter what, I have heard from very trust worthy people that have expressed concerns about the tornado threat. Such as Gabe Garfield. That alone is enough to have me concerned about tomorrow. Plus, regardless if it goes HIGH or not, we are not the experts and we leave that up to the SPC and it’ll still be a very dangerous situation regardless as the parameter space is very good.
 
I've been looking at the 19z HRRR and some of the other CAMs over SE AL (where I live). I know it was mentioned earlier today, but I can't find the post or otherwise I'd quote it.

I have noticed a little bit of an uptick in the projected updraft helicity values over this region, but they have been otherwise fairly anemic.

The projected environment is still very volatile and it still kind of amazes me that we're pulling these types of numbers at 2,3,4 AM in mid-March, but the overall lack of updraft helicity is telling us something.

This sounding is from the 19z HRRR over south/central AL. I've drawn in the SR wind vectors (yellow) and the vorticity vectors (yellow) for the lowest ~3km. There is a fairly high ratio of crosswise to streamwise vorticity in this layer, especially as you ascend past the very lowest level, which may make it relatively difficult to sustain a robust mesocyclone and convert that into a tornado. I did draw the vectors from the mean storm motion as opposed to the right deviant which does decrease the amount of streamwise vorticity FWIW.

In addition, SR winds are fairly weak in the 1-6km range (in the order of ~10kts) which may damper the supercellular tornado risk to some degree.

hrrr_2026031519_014_31.85--85.7.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top