Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[N0mz]

Do they always do that?

I think for mid-day, day 1 outlook upgrades

 

[JPWX]

Not always

 

[tornado examiner]

Does it really warrant a moderate for either tornadoes or wind?

Yeah no moderate today.

 

[N0mz]

ENH kept

 

[genie]

Currently 70/59 here in my backyard in Kennesaw, GA. Almost impossible to believe that it might snow on the backside of this system.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

ENH kept
View attachment 51889

They did expanded the 10 percent little west. Larger
Now

 

[bckhd2]

70/59 in ATL, sun coming out now

 

[N0mz]

Currently 70/59 here in my backyard in Kennesaw, GA. Almost impossible to believe that it might snow on the backside of this system.

In DC, we had a >50 degree temperature drop in 24 hours on Wednesday. Went from 86 and sunny to 35 and snowing hard.

 

[genie]

In DC, we had a >50 degree temperature drop in 24 hours on Wednesday. Went from 86 and sunny to 35 and snowing hard.

Yeah, my flowers aren't going to take kindly to it getting into the twenties tomorrow, assuming that the hail doesn't get them first.

I don't like how similar the HRRR and RRFS have been trending. I thought that the RRFS was supposed to the one that is overly dramatic and used as click bait thumbnails...

 

[Ledian]

East of Ava looks interesting...

 

[speedbump305]

Storm east of Ava, MO might need a tornado warning shortly.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Does it really warrant a moderate for either tornadoes or wind?

Yeah no moderate today.

Figure moderate for wind be honest

 

[Justin Hindman]

About to cross the river into east Arkansas:. Hopefully can get in position for one

 

[WhirlingWx]

Also looking S of Warrenton, MO (closer to the St. Louis metro) as an area of storms potentially wrapping up

 

[MichelleH]

 

[speedbump305]

If Brett Adair mentions anything about an increasing tornado threat, that really says something.

 

[Kds86z]

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LOW 60F DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW MOVED INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION, EXPECT
MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK, SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THESE SUPERCELLS WOULD HAVE SOME HAIL THREAT,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE (2+ INCH) HAIL.

THE KNQA VWP ALREADY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 2.5
KM AND THE HODOGRAPH SIZE IS EXPECTED TO GROW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 850/700MB FLOW STRENGTHENS. THEREFORE, IF THESE
PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS FORM, THEY WILL ALSO HAVE A TORNADO THREAT,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

BY LATER IN THE EVENING, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WARMER
AIR AND GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS EVENING. AROUND THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF 62-64F DEWPOINTS INTO
THIS REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL QLCS TORNADO THREAT
IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE, AND MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED SOON IF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
IMMINENT.

..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 03/15/2026

 

[tornado examiner]

First tor warn of the day

 

[Tennie]

The first tornado warning for the day is for Willow Springs, MO.

 

[speedbump305]

First TOR warning of the event. Willow Springs and Mountain View, MO under the gun.