speedbump305
Member
I think our wifi had a surge. Should be all good shortly.
Edit: All good! Ready to follow along.
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Edit: All good! Ready to follow along.
Ozonelayer
Member
Bevo
Member
Very blustery here in Dallas, lots and lots of wind. Tomorrow is looking like a weird late-season cold snap with lows in the 30s and a high of 50. 
Obviously not the highlight given the situation unfolding to the east, but I'll have to give my family and friends on the east coast a call about the forecast tomorrow.
Obviously not the highlight given the situation unfolding to the east, but I'll have to give my family and friends on the east coast a call about the forecast tomorrow.
speedbump305
Member
That’s an outbreak tomorrow. My god.
I would be expanding that 10% TOR risk and add a Level 4 risk from West TN/North MS. RRFS and HRRR are both in agreement with increased tornado/supercell threat out ahead of main squall line (if there's even a solid storm line that is)
Should've posted this earlier for folks, but you can use this site below to find your nearest tornado shelter. Curated by the lovely Dr. Craig Ceecee.
speedbump305
Member
By the way, we have our first SVR-T Storm warning of the event in MO. Cities such as Forsyth and Taneyville under the gun.
speedbump305
Member
We really need to give you the talkweather parent award. Always taking care of us.Should've posted this earlier for folks, but you can use this site below to find your nearest tornado shelter. Curated by the lovely Dr. Craig Ceecee.
KCweatherboy
Member
Any chance there's enough wildfire smoke being sucked in on the back side of the system from OK to add just a tiny bit of a cap in the AR/TN vicinity?
I’m very bullish on tomorrow and tonight, but I still don’t think the HRRR is handling and depicting tomorrow correctly. CAMs can go both ways, see 3/15 last year with that insane presentation. That warm sector is very crowded and you’re actually seeing more rotation tracks being depicted for tonight than tomorrow. It is depicting the warm sector convecting though, but they’re staying spotty showers.
Ledian
Member
Certainly not liking the uptick i'm seeing around here on models.
People are over here getting more fallen branches/limbs out of the yard from the ice storm. Not sure how much good it'll do though.
People are over here getting more fallen branches/limbs out of the yard from the ice storm. Not sure how much good it'll do though.
No way. I’ve really stopped buying into the whole “wildfire smoke” snuffing out events via cap reinforcement. 5/20/2019 was a mistimed trough and messy storm mode. Some posited wildfire smoke played a role, but then you had a study saying the Mexican wildfires of 2011 actually made the super outbreak worse. Way too many dynamic variables at play in both situations.
Kds86z
Member
Thats my area. Oof
I suspect that whatever effects (if any) that wildfire smoke may have on a given convective event may depend on a HUGE number of extenuating factors (e.g. a certain weather pattern could cause the smoke to act as an accelerant, while a certain other pattern could cause the smoke to act as an inhibitor). We’ll definitely need a lot of careful study to determine the effects of smoke on atmospheric behavior, that’s for sure.
Kds86z
Member
Ozonelayer
Member
CSimonds
Member
Dew points in Guntersville and Huntsville have actually been falling. Pre Dawn was in the 40’s and then at 7 am it was 58 and now it’s down to 54.
speedbump305
Member
Looks like some blips may be starting to pop up around the Hot Springs/Mountain Pine, AR areas.
N0mz
Member
Probably would have gotten an MCD mentioning an upgrade at this point
tornado examiner
Member
Do they always do that?