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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Brice W said:
Yeah, definitely be on watch. Last time something this significant looked to happen was 4/16/2011 so definitely make sure you’re weather aware.
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2011? That was an infamous year I lived through in an untouched area as a kid. I was in an area of Alabama that didn’t get hit by a tornado on 4/27.

That’s concerning though, but I will watch out for anything and keep up to date with the current situation.
 
bckhd2 said:
Wonder if the SPC will increase risk for those areas on the Day 3 outlook - the Day 4 and 5 risk outlines jumped over AL and GA entirely. Don't love the way this is uptrending
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I noticed that too and not sure how to interpret that. I think the days end at 7am ET now soooo..

That updated D3 update made me run back to this website, look for this thread, and turn on notifications.
 
Now, if I were to draw a Moderate Risk, I would have it basically from Eastern Arkansas into parts of at least Northwest Alabama down into parts of Central MS along with a CIG 2 for both tornadoes and especially damaging winds. Reason why is this from SPC:
The greatest STP
values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM)
between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi
and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to
accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early
morning period.
 
JPWX said:
Now, if I were to draw a Moderate Risk, I would have it basically from Eastern Arkansas into parts of at least Northwest Alabama down into parts of Central MS along with a CIG 2 for both tornadoes and especially damaging winds. Reason why is this from SPC:
The greatest STP
values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM)
between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi
and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to
accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early
morning period.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think significant QLCS tornado risk will be highest there, though any OWS activity will be further east into Alabama most likely.
 
Clancy said:
Yep. I know people are highlighting the QLCS/damaging wind risk for Sunday, but overnight in MS/AL/GA, I think the tornado risk is very legit.
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Yeah, I get the hype for Monday afternoon, but this has the potential to be a very impactful event for MS/AL/GA. Parameters even into N GA are very favorable for severe weather in an otherwise unfriendly timeframe (mid/late morning). I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more broken line as it swings into AL/GA giving some guidance I’ve reviewed. Which will of course need to be monitored for line end circulations and embedded supercells. I worry some won’t take the threat seriously since it’s an overnight late weekend event.
 
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