tornado examiner
Member
If convective mode plays out right will there be a long track tornado potential?
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Even for us? I’ve lived here for three years and three months and I’ve yet to see a tornado here. I know one happened here in our area around 2018 though.
Ozonelayer
Member
Absolutely
Especially down around Alabama and Georgia. That 18Z NAM was fierce.
Too early to tell exactly. But yes. With the way the NAM ( a model) is trending it’s a possibility.
tornado examiner
Member
Saw someone say the forcing is too strong for cells to remain discrete in the line. Is it really?
Moisture usually uptrends as well doesn’t it?
Moisture usually uptrends as well doesn’t it?
Then I definitely should be concerned, because I don’t see this kind of thing everyday.
I know what NAM is, it’s a mesoscale model.
Nope.
Due to the strong southerly winds at the surface prior to the line getting to Alabama, your already sitting in low to mid 60s dew points in the state.
Yeah, definitely be on watch. Last time something this significant looked to happen was 4/16/2011 so definitely make sure you’re weather aware.
Ozonelayer
Member
As @Clancy said, nope.
And yes, moisture uptrends but with a system like this, with these kinematics, you REALLY dont want more moisture because, with the kinematics, a little more moisture goes a longgg way.
tornado examiner
Member
Yep. Not gonna be a safe day at all.
akt1985
Member
What is the probability of seeing our first High Risk of 2026 on Sunday?
tornado examiner
Member
It’s possible, but idk.
Argus
Member
This weather pattern is similar to 1994, and we know what happened on Palm Sunday.
I don't think there is enough certainty regarding the degree of destabilization to warrant that yet. I think a MDT risk for winds at minimum is becoming likely though.
slenker
Member
Damaging winds high risk? I’d say it’s got a solid chance from a D3 perspective. Tornadoes, unlikely at this point IMO but things could definitely change more so in that direction.
Ozonelayer
Member
Too early to say. We'd need to get higher res CAMs to get a hold on discrete cells/semi-discrete line
storm mode once they get into range for there to be a chance.
Heavily depends on how broken the line is and whether we see any OWS storms or prefrontals, would like to see a little more cape as well then I would say it's a possibility.
Once the WRFs get into range as well as the HRRR we may get a better feel on it.