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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Jason Mills said:
(Disclaimer: I'm looking at this from an Alabama/Mississippi perspective). A potential fly in the ointment I'm seeing from the 12z GFS is a pretty substantial warm nose/EML in the 800-600mb layer. By the time that layer cools through lifting, the LLJ is starting to eject northward and hodographs become significantly straighter. That warm layer is going to make it hard to sustain intense updrafts, at least in the afternoon/early evening hours while you have stronger diurnal heating.

The 06z Euro doesn't have as prominent of a warm layer and it depicts a prefrontal trough out ahead of the main cold front. That could spell trouble.
Click to expand...
Not sure I buy GFS' warm nose for this setup as much as I would if it was mid-April.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Notable, that GFS ensemble image in there appears to have slightly higher dewpoints than any individual op run I've seen over the last 24 hours or so. That's...ominous.
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There's a pretty clear upward trend on moisture return off the GEFS. I would point more specifically to the depth of depicted moisture available in the Gulf, going from mid 60s to well into the 70s.
trend-gefsens-2026031212-f084.sfctd-mean-imp.conus.gif
 
bckhd2 said:
Wonder if the SPC will increase risk for those areas on the Day 3 outlook - the Day 4 and 5 risk outlines jumped over AL and GA entirely. Don't love the way this is uptrending
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They seemed to question the eastern and northern extent of the threat, and Leitman mentioned that expansions would be likely.
A 15
percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into
the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level
moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north
and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley
vicinity in subsequent outlooks.
Click to expand...
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Just for funsies. Here's the tornado cips run. Bullseye is in Alabama. Seems like cips picking up on the bigger threat along the immediate Gulf states, seen this before but will see how it goes moving forward.

View attachment 51632
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Trimmer still think s Midsouth area. Little Rock towards Memphis tn. Hot spot . We see
 
Extended range guidance suggests that an amplifying northern stream
trough will dig southeastward from the central High Plains into the
MO Valley on Sunday, before rapidly intensifying as it turns
northeastward over the Mid-MS Valley and acquires a slight negative
tilt Sunday night. As this occurs, a developing surface low will lift
northeastward from eastern KS into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday
before undergoing a phase of rapid deepening Sunday night over Lower
MI. Southerly flow across our CWFA will strengthen throughout the day
(supporting an increasing coverage of low clouds and perhaps some
light showers), with temps warming into the l-m 70s. Beginning late
Sunday morning, a strongly forced band of convection is predicted to
evolve along the cyclone's cold front (in the MO Valley vicinity),
with upscale growth predicted to occur throughout the
afternoon/evening as the front accelerates southeastward. Present
indications are that strengthening deep-layer forcing for ascent
(enhanced by increasingly diffluent flow aloft) will maintain the
frontal QLCS as it enters our region late Sunday evening and exits
early Monday morning. In the presence of a sufficiently
moist/unstable airmass (with dewpoints in the m50s-l60s), intense
wind fields (highlighted by a 45-55 knot SSW low-level jet and WSW
mid-level flow increasing to 100+ knots by 12Z Monday) will support a
risk for strong-severe thunderstorms (including the potential for
higher-caliber damaging winds as well as line-embedded mesocyclones
and tornadoes).
 
How you know it's gonna be a bigger threat that will include tornadoes:
MEG: Long term model solutions indicate a northern stream mid-level
trough will drop southeast across the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valleys Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Model
soundings indicate a modest capping inversion will initially be
present. However, impressive 500 mb height falls will overspread
the region with a strongly forced line of showers and
thunderstorms developing and moving across the Mid-South Sunday
evening. LREF model probabilities indicate a medium chance (30 to
50%) for sufficient instability and shear favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River.
Early indications suggest the main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds.
 
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