Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[speedbump305]

If any discrete storm right now is gonna blow up, it’s the Warren, AR storm.

 

[TornadoFan]

If any discrete storm right now is gonna blow up, it’s the Warren, AR storm.

Yeah. It's already got tops up to 42,000 feet.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This is not a day where I'm particularly concerned about prefrontals. Personally, i see them struggling big time.

I mentioned earlier a conditional scenario later on tonight in AL where you COULD fire convection ahead or the line but it might be too short of a window or crapvection ruins the thermos. Without intense low level shear and a potentially mature prefrontal, NW AL would have a big concern. Thankfully this scenario is low confidence for me.

Now that the HRRR has got into its usually 24 hr reliable range for Monday, the ceiling is a bit lower but still supports conditionally significant tornadoes with mature prefrontals in Carolinas. We'll continue to monitor.

QLCS spam will be truly berserk today and it has just begun. Still seeing circulations in IL everywhere pop up occasionally.

 

[Chris3024]

Timmer is on the storm headed toward Stuttgart, definite wall cloud on it.

 

[Jason Mills]

Rufus asked if AL wanted supercells.

 

[Clancy]

They're definitely gonna get eaten up by the line, but dang if that's not impressive-looking at a glance.

 

[lake.effect]

prefrontals look pretty discrete, especially in Arkansas. Seems like they will have at least a few more hours in discrete mode before the line catches them.

 

[TornadoFan]

Observed tornado on the NE Arkansas storm near Walnut Ridge.

 

[SmokeEater]

TOG NE AR.

 

[TornadoFan]

Rufus asked if AL wanted supercells.

View attachment 51929

Supercell printer goes BRRRRRTTTT.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

My definition of mature prefrontals are those on 4/2: healthy, active tornado producers that have a clear indication of not stopping any time soon. Today, we may have plenty of convection firing in SE AR but nothing mature to the point where it's a major concern and that's how this convection will remain for however long it sustains.

 

[Ledian]

The warning list is absolutely lighting up:

Where's the link to that?

And yeah, i'm definitely keeping an eye on the Warren, Stuttgart and Hoxie storms.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

Echo tops on the Warren storm now up to 46,000 feet. Still intensifying.

 

[speedbump305]

Echo tops on the Warren storm now up to 46,000 feet. Still intensifying.

Definitely getting its act together. Have some concerns that this could become a tornado producer shortly.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm near Stuttgart, Arkansas. It does have some rotation on velocities.

 

[KevinH]

SRH values reaching 600 at around 11pm ET, no big deal. Nothing to see here.

CIPS Model Guidance

www.eas.slu.edu

 

[TornadoFan]

SRH values reaching 600 at around 11pm ET, no big deal. Nothing to see here.
View attachment 51932

CIPS Model Guidance

www.eas.slu.edu

 

[Jason Mills]

Where's the link to that?

And yeah, i'm definitely keeping an eye on the Warren, Stuttgart and Hoxie storms.

It's a webapp I'm working on. It's not stable enough to share right now (but I will soon!). I'm using today and tomorrow to stress test my warning parser and database code.

 

[TornadoFan]

Might need to keep an eye on this for a little bit.