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Severe Weather 2026

Yeah, surface based CAPE is barely 500 where the storm is. Surface stability probably just stopped an intense+ tornado
No, nvm. That storm is at 790 m where Flagstaff's elevation is. That, according to Isaiah Montgomery on Twitter would be actually around 80/62 aloft meaning the environment is quite unstable actually. TD spreads in that case could've been the limiting factor or some sort of storm scale factor.
 
No, nvm. That storm is at 790 m where Flagstaff's elevation is. That, according to Isaiah Montgomery on Twitter would be actually around 80/62 aloft meaning the environment is quite unstable actually. TD spreads in that case could've been the limiting factor or some sort of storm scale factor.
The fact it had that look may spell trouble for later on.
 
This early round isn't it but stuff should reinvorgate later on for the main tor threat. Orographic influence will play a big part I'm thinking and let's tag our fellow expert on that @N0mz. Curious on your thoughts should any storms stretch these mountains?
I do see a possibly more favorable air mass with much warmer temperatures was shunted off to the SE.

Screenshot 2026-10-21 at 9.34.28 PM.png

Possibly, this was caused by terrain not allowing a typical southeasterly mass response, allowing cooler air to remain over the risk area. This terrain effect is why you see the gap in violent tornadoes from SE KY through WV and W VA up to Maryland, as the Appalachians typically prevent any southeasterly mass response from improving surface conditions. Meanwhile, the opposite occurs around OH and W PA, where historically there have been a few more violent tornadoes (although many are from a single outbreak) because the very flat terrain in OH, N KY, and IN allows for improved Gulf moisture fetch, even though this area is a bit further north than WV.

Screenshot 2026-10-21 at 9.56.16 PM.png

A couple of caveats: I am late to the party, so, as much as I try to avoid it, I am hindcasting a bit. Also, while there were warmer temperatures to the south, they had much larger t-d spreads, so they could have hurt more than they helped. There also wasn't a super consistent surface SE flow, although it may have been a little more evident at 925, as seen here.

Screenshot 2026-10-21 at 9.50.25 PM.png

Finally, I'm not super knowledgeable about hailers in general, especially with terrain effects. Orographically stretching the meso might hurt hailers as it forces the meso out of its "natural" and probably most stable state, although I'm really just guessing.
 
Today's Tornado Watch was the first Tornado Watch in NWS Flagstaff's CWA in October since 2010. This is the only month on record that has featured a Tornado Watch in that area as well.
 
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