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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
CheeselandSkies
Member
Nice of the GFS to take my potential backyard chase on Monday and yeet it to central/western Iowa (which SPC seems on board with per today's 4-8) in the span of one run.
jackhutwx
Member
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Convective chronicles is planning on putting out a video on the upcoming fall and winter severe weather season also the meteorological breakdown of the southern Mississippi large tornado posted as well
Until I saw that I didn’t think he was doing those anymore. Hopefully he can quell some of the fall season hype
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Right he hasn’t done any recently the past several fall winter severe seasons until just now also yep agreed definitely not going to be a Godzilla super very strong El Niño
jackhutwx
Member
this is why trey is the absolute goat, I love all of his forecasts and post-event analysis, they're always very informative
joshoctober16
Member
a short live very tiny tight area of rotation was seen in atlantic canada , it was a mini supercell riding a boundary.
cell is still going on but with broad rotation , migth or migth of not have had a cc drop its hard to tell.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
Very strongly agree with everything you said Yeppers
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Day 1:
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL, SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. A
FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 250-300 M2/S2.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING, AT WHICH POINT, THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE IN THE MID MO VALLEY OWING TO
STRONGER CAPPING AND WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE 00Z
MODELS (CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED) INDICATE A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FROM NORTHEAST NE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. GIVEN SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION AND
SUSTENANCE, CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF ALL HAZARDS FROM EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHEAST NE
AND NORTHWEST IA, WITH GENERALLY A WIND AND HAIL THREAT FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE NE-KS STATE LINE.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL, SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED TWO INCHES. A
FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 250-300 M2/S2.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING, AT WHICH POINT, THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE IN THE MID MO VALLEY OWING TO
STRONGER CAPPING AND WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE 00Z
MODELS (CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETERIZED) INDICATE A RELATIVE
MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FROM NORTHEAST NE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. GIVEN SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION AND
SUSTENANCE, CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF ALL HAZARDS FROM EASTERN SD AND SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHEAST NE
AND NORTHWEST IA, WITH GENERALLY A WIND AND HAIL THREAT FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE NE-KS STATE LINE.