Someone is spoofing tornado reports, this ain't real. Have seen other erroneous reports from the same guy.
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Someone is spoofing tornado reports, this ain't real. Have seen other erroneous reports from the same guy.
Kds86z
Member
This is September right?
Kds86z
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
jackhutwx
Member
gary sd, is that you?
Kds86z
Member
SPC has outlined a day 4 (Friday) 15% for Eastern NE into MN and far west WI.
This is a sounding I pulled from somewhere in the SCP bullseye in MN/WI around the far Northeast corner of the risk:
A couple Issues worth noting are TD spreads straddling the 20 degree range, 700mb temps on that 10 degree mark, and -87 low-level CIN, but those SRH numbers alone have my eybrows raised, even if just by a slight amount.
This is a sounding I pulled from somewhere in the SCP bullseye in MN/WI around the far Northeast corner of the risk:
A couple Issues worth noting are TD spreads straddling the 20 degree range, 700mb temps on that 10 degree mark, and -87 low-level CIN, but those SRH numbers alone have my eybrows raised, even if just by a slight amount.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yesterday verified superb in ND for photogenic tor potential as I had mentioned.
Today, a 2% is outlined around the Des Moines vicinity @Grand Poo Bah and while it's a low end setup, something can't be fully ruled out. 500mb flow is rather meager but a subtle 700mb shortwave should help to fire stuff in C IA today.
A lot of dry air may cause more outflowy production and potentially damaging winds but heads up anyways!
TOMORROW
I know I've been up and down but I don't fully think that areas are out of the gun with a tornado risk tomorrow. W NY catches my eye. While instability will be paltry due to warmer mid levels as we've discussed but just enough instability combined with shear in excess of 300+ SRH could help any line segments strongly forced by the intense mid level jet.
The 11th was outlined as mentioned above by @ThatGuy;P. It seems that localized intense bout of shear evolves from this localized 50+ kt 700mb jet max that hits the cluster of sorts in this environment. The 500mb jet also hits this area bang on. While intense shear does exist, uncertainties about storm mode in this environment exist. All down south is a damaging wind/hail risk that may be more discrete in nature.
Notice the lack of flow the further you go. Height falls are also generally poor too except for up in NE MN. this area catches my eye plenty.
That 60+ kt peak may be convective influence but regardless, it's a interesting synoptic picture that favors one area in particular. Tornado risk absolutely exists, to what extent or how high is unknown atm.
Today, a 2% is outlined around the Des Moines vicinity @Grand Poo Bah and while it's a low end setup, something can't be fully ruled out. 500mb flow is rather meager but a subtle 700mb shortwave should help to fire stuff in C IA today.
A lot of dry air may cause more outflowy production and potentially damaging winds but heads up anyways!
TOMORROW
I know I've been up and down but I don't fully think that areas are out of the gun with a tornado risk tomorrow. W NY catches my eye. While instability will be paltry due to warmer mid levels as we've discussed but just enough instability combined with shear in excess of 300+ SRH could help any line segments strongly forced by the intense mid level jet.
The 11th was outlined as mentioned above by @ThatGuy;P. It seems that localized intense bout of shear evolves from this localized 50+ kt 700mb jet max that hits the cluster of sorts in this environment. The 500mb jet also hits this area bang on. While intense shear does exist, uncertainties about storm mode in this environment exist. All down south is a damaging wind/hail risk that may be more discrete in nature.
Notice the lack of flow the further you go. Height falls are also generally poor too except for up in NE MN. this area catches my eye plenty.
That 60+ kt peak may be convective influence but regardless, it's a interesting synoptic picture that favors one area in particular. Tornado risk absolutely exists, to what extent or how high is unknown atm.
Thanks for the heads up! Today was totally not even on my radar! (Hehe)
Kds86z
Member
storms in des moines area appear to be rapidly gaining strength.
Kds86z
Member
Been waiting for that one! Great