• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2026

Quick disclaimer regarding long range forecasting for this particular season: last year was supposed to be a very uneventful may in general, but something happened (that I can't recall) in the Pacific causing the potential for that May to be turning more rapidly favorable. Things can change very rapidly in these oceans, so i wouldn't say on a poor peak season yet.

April was supposed to be dead after today but yet look at how our next period's beginning to show. Once again, the magnitude is unknown but some interesting signals for severe weather are definitely taking place.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Quick disclaimer regarding long range forecasting for this particular season: last year was supposed to be a very uneventful may in general, but something happened (that I can't recall) in the Pacific causing the potential for that May to be turning more rapidly favorable. Things can change very rapidly in these oceans, so i wouldn't say on a poor peak season yet.

April was supposed to be dead after today but yet look at how our next period's beginning to show. Once again, the magnitude is unknown but some interesting signals for severe weather are definitely taking place.
Click to expand...

Trey's forecast definitely influenced a lot of the sentiment in here too. I'm of the general opinion that record warm temperatures in the US and record cold temps in Antartica is going to lead to some pretty intense and volatile weather down the line. Plus La Nina is transitioning into a potentially very strong El Nino, which is the period most associated with tornadic activity.

I think we've had a lot of systems so far this spring that would've been outbreaks if widespread CAPE was 3000-4000 instead of 1000-1500. We've basically been in a super active pattern since mid-February, if this trend continues into late April and May the associated weather is going to rapidly get more and more explosive.
 
Hints of activity on the horizon for parts of the Mid-South into Southeast. Still way too early to make much of it, but clearly the Plains into the MSV could be getting in on some mid-April action.
1775396884133.png
 
Happy Easter! He Is Risen!
 
I regret not posting it now and I deleted the supporting imagery (I had a post prepared but ended up not submitting it), but one thing I noticed about the last system (4/4 trough) is that the AI Euro and AI GFS had an excellent forecast for its 500 mb evolution well in advance compared to the other models, and the AI Euro really had it nailed down even ~140+ hours in advance while the other models were showing a complete nothing burger for it at that point in time. While it didn't end up being much at all from a severe weather standpoint, I found that the AI Euro was a dog on a bone with the evolution of the trough itself and did not back down, with other models following suit when the timing came closer. With a healthy dose of skepticism involved, I am starting to think that the AI mid-range globals are fairly good, however I do want to see more before I fully buy into them compared to the normal ECMWF or GFS.

I am stating this because I can see that the AI Euro ensemble seems to have a bit of a more robust look to the upcoming systems next week, and additionally has the pattern sticking around until hour 360 (albeit quite diffusely). Obviously that's super far out, but it's certainly very interesting to see.
 
Last edited:
Been noticing that myself
 
I think i have enough pattern recognition to recognise "mesoscale" days and the GFS is already picturing those type of parameter spaces for next week. Weak low level shear but strong venting and adequate CAPE aloft in the Plains can make for quite the surprises so I would be optimistic if I was a chaser.

No specific areas of course yet but we'll see how things trend.
 
Rare super high quality post on Tornado Reddit. Looking at it like this definitely puts into perspective how slow March was on the strong tornado front. 2026 tors only hold 2 spots on the top 30 from the last 5 years. Even crazier is it's tied with 2024, which ended up producing the second most tornadoes on record for the year.



1775444338352.png
 
Last edited:
Grand Poo Bah said:
Rare super high quality post on Tornado Reddit. Looking at it like this definitely puts into perspective how slow this year has been so far on the strong tornado front. 2026 tors only hold 2 spots on the top 30 from the last 5 years. Even crazier is it's tied with 2024, which ended up producing the second most tornadoes on record for the year.



View attachment 52548
Click to expand...

Tbh I feel like 2025 is underrated on this graph as I think that year had a lot of high end tors in rural areas.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top