Severe Weather 2026

[UK_EF4]

Really think the 2nd April is one to watch, with models quickly converging onto a solution which I reckon could be the first robust severe threat in a while across IA/MO/IL

Models have shifted towards the subtle shortwave which travels fairly quickly through the Midwest on Thursday having stronger flow and being more developed. This leads to a stronger low level response with a pretty strong ~50/60kt LLJ being modelled during the entire duration of the event period. To be honest, the modelled windspeeds actually surprised me given the weaker mid-upper level flow.



The result is pretty decent moisture return. ECM here with a fairly widespread 60F dp, and a pacific front kind of feature. Due to the shape of the upper trough you start to get some colder 500mb temperatures overlapping this warm sector, and the result is 1000j/kg being modelled on this ECM run. Safe to assume this would increase as we get closer to the event.



Early days still considering its still D3/4 range... but these classic setups will always catch my eye. The general warm sector & trough geometry, plus the forcing mechanisms look quite 'clean' here in a way that could really favour (semi)-discrete supercells as the primary storm mode. Some of the forecast soundings have an environment easily favourable of strong tornadoes.



In literally the last few hours or so having looked through the models, this setup is really catching my eye, and I think it might be good to open a thread for this one soon. Especially the ECM/UKM scenarios would likely be severe weather outbreaks.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, this is annoying because that's the day I fly out to Oklahoma and this wasn't on the models even a day and a half ago. Watch this produce in my backyard hours after I leave and Friday/Saturday turn out to be positive tilt slop which they are once again trending toward on the Euro. Ugggggh.

BTW I'm starting a thread because this is a fairly apparent at least 3-day stretch of at least some severe weather, somewhere by now.

Thread 'Severe Weather Threat April 1-4'

Mar 30, 2026

Pretty good signal in the models now for some severe weather each of these three days, although nothing particularly high-ceiling at this time. Today-Tuesday can still be discussed in the general seasonal thread.

• CheeselandSkies
• Replies: 331
• Forum: General Weather Discussion

• 

 

[JPWX]

Just a matter of time before SPC outlooks an area for this weekend. Going from near 85 Saturday to upper 50s/low 60s Sunday.

 

[Austin Dawg]

May I ask why specifically 2011? There’s been other years that have had quiet Marches and active Aprils…

2011 was the year my hometown was destroyed. 2011 was the year we had a huge outbreak.

 

[SaWxRodrigo]

Just a couple of hours ago, at sunset on 3/31 in the towns of San Rafael and Toledano in Mendoza, Argentina, were hit by Gorilla Hail measuring several inches. The tropical air mass affecting the region, with dew points around 75°F, combined with the high elevation of the Andes in Mendoza (equivalent to the elevation of the Colorado Rockies in North America), makes this area one of the most conducive in the world for Gorilla and Gargantua Hail.

Spoiler

 

[Aaron Rider]

There may or may not have been a tornado in Cattaraugus County, NY last night.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Video of a tornado yesterday near Watkins Glen, NY

 

[JPWX]

Next timeframe to watch for severe weather

 

[Kds86z]

Video of a tornado yesterday near Watkins Glen, NY

Confirmed and rated ef1

 

[kcyalater]

dixie out here dodging tornado threats like neo in the matrix. still no sign of anything SE of arklatex through mid april.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Confirmed and rated ef1

In addition, the area saw significant flooding.

For example, I've attached pictures of some flooding on the campus of Houghton University. This is notable and rather impressive in that said campus is on a bluff above the Genesee River. The village of Houghton, situated closer to the river, suffered more significant flooding. I attended Houghton and, fun fact, used to live in one of the flooded houses. The stream at left is called Houghton Creek.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

dixie out here dodging tornado threats like neo in the matrix. still no sign of anything SE of arklatex through mid april.

Yeah really unreal how this severe season has turned out for us this far . Think it’s done here be honest before it started . That ridge not letting go

 

[Sharpy]

Yeah really unreal how this severe season has turned out for us this far . Think it’s done here be honest before it started . That ridge not letting go

Two things can be true:

1) It’s been great in portions of Dixie where there has not been much severe weather activity so far this spring.

2) We still have some ways to go before the season can truly be declared over.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just like in sports, a team can be up 28-3 and still lose, such as in football - bonus points if you know what game I am referring to

Hopefully it continues to be quiet (everyone would love that), but let’s not call it a wrap already. It would be nice to have some rain before summer arrives and ease some drought concerns. Maybe that comes without severe weather or maybe it does, but taking the patterns and systems one at a time is the best approach.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Met Eireann thinks I may see up to 90 km/h (55 mph gusts) with now named Storm Dave. Wonder if we could manage a gust of over 60 briefly. Gonna be a windy day/night

 

[Aaron Rider]

Two things can be true:

1) It’s been great in portions of Dixie where there has not been much severe weather activity so far this spring.

2) We still have some ways to go before the season can truly be declared over.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just like in sports, a team can be up 28-3 and still lose, such as in football - bonus points if you know what game I am referring to

Hopefully it continues to be quiet (everyone would love that), but let’s not call it a wrap already. It would be nice to have some rain before summer arrives and ease some drought concerns. Maybe that comes without severe weather or maybe it does, but taking the patterns and systems one at a time is the best approach.

That 2nd half was the worst offensive and situational coaching I've ever seen. And I know football way, way more than I know weather.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Low topped supercells perhaps tmrw afternoon moving E towards me from Dave...

 

[Kds86z]

 

[kcyalater]

Two things can be true:

1) It’s been great in portions of Dixie where there has not been much severe weather activity so far this spring.

2) We still have some ways to go before the season can truly be declared over.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just like in sports, a team can be up 28-3 and still lose, such as in football - bonus points if you know what game I am referring to

Hopefully it continues to be quiet (everyone would love that), but let’s not call it a wrap already. It would be nice to have some rain before summer arrives and ease some drought concerns. Maybe that comes without severe weather or maybe it does, but taking the patterns and systems one at a time is the best approach.

unless a full scale pattern change happens, dixie is done for the spring. troughing continues to favor the upper midwest for ejecting lows.

still don’t see that in the modeling

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

unless a full scale pattern change happens, dixie is done for the spring. troughing continues to favor the upper midwest for ejecting lows.

still don’t see that in the modeling

What was the date of the largest outbreak in Dixie Alley (and United States) history again? I forgot.

 

[slenker]

Solid signal for deep troughing, albeit with somewhat lackluster flow at this time, across the west in the 4/9-4/14 timeframe. Based on some of the operationals, 4/11-12 may be a day to watch.