Severe Weather 2026

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Just because a year is inactive or below average doesn't mean notable events can't happen. Even 2018 had its slight share in that department with 12/1/18, and 7/19/18 + 3/19/18. It only takes one tornado to make the headlines of the year regardless of how consistent the pattern is.

 

[eep]

I'll chime in that I also remember that a lot of the seasons being compared to this year were inactive due to nasty ridging that swept out the possibility of severe weather for chunks of the year. Unless that happens, I'd bet on these next few months being pretty average when it comes to tornado production.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Wednesday looking interesting in South Oklahoma if a discrete supercell maintains itself overnight, interesting trend by the NAM and euro suggests convection around this time here too.

The soundings aren't bad and there is backing that is notable




See how this evolves but we've got ourselves a little something developing here

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

A few of you may wonder why I'm combining euro simref with models like the NAM and parameters and such but it's generally because Broyles do it and I find the Euro has a good grapple on distinguishing discrete mode, clusters or QLCSes the majority of the time!

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

A few of you may wonder why I'm combining euro simref with models like the NAM and parameters and such but it's generally because Broyles do it and I find the Euro has a good grapple on distinguishing discrete mode, clusters or QLCSes the majority of the time!

The Euro has been performing super well the last several systems I feel like.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The Euro has been performing super well the last several systems I feel like.

That's encouraging, because the Euro/EPS have generally had the preferable look (from a chasing perspective) for this upcoming Friday/Saturday, as well as for deeper into my tour window. The GFS/GEFS have been a lot more positively tilted and progressive with the former system, and flip-flopping a lot on any opportunities further out.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The 18Z GFS uptrending for Friday and a solution that the EURO suggests is perhaps more of a propagating cluster of storms atm. But the environment would be conducive to damaging winds + tornadoes! Should the euro trend more discrete, Friday catches my eye plenty but not seeing a highly impactful or concerning threat atm!

 

[akt1985]

While a below-average tornado count this spring in Dixie Alley might be great on one hand, it could also spell worsening drought conditions this summer if most of the moisture with the storm system stay to our north.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

I'm at the point where I don't even care about severe weather, I just want some rain here in central OK. Stuff is dry

 

[N0mz]

I'm at the point where I don't even care about severe weather, I just want some rain here in central OK. Stuff is dry

It's been dry as a bone (and warm) basically anywhere west of the Mississippi

 

[slenker]

Don’t really know where else to put this, so I’ll post it to this thread, since it is related to severe weather:

I recommend watching this. Great video that goes over some math, particularly the quasi geostropic omega equations which I just learned about from this video. Also, good for interpreting the conceptual side of meteorology. This channel is very math-centered so it’s really cool for them to show some of the mathematical side of the field.

 

[jiharris0220]

April 3rd is the day I’d keep my eye on.


Negative tilt long wave trough, high intensity potential vorticity streamer next to the coldfront/dryline (strong forcing mechanism). You also have dews in the low to mid 60s, and respectable thermos.
Then you have a 100+knot jet streak super-positioned over the triple boundary point of the warm sector. (Take note of the sub tropical jet phasing with the main jet, these double barreled structures create incredibly high deep layer sheer for supercells to take advantage of).

Theses soundings below are classic plains outbreak material. Favorable mixed PBL with very high vertical instability and a weak inversion layer. Shear magnitude is quite moderate, however, there’s a healthy amount of veering in the vertical profiles.
Streamwiseness is high indicated by the curved hodographs in the low levels and critical angles close to 80d.

 

[US_Highway15]

Friday and Saturday (especially) are days we need to keep tabs on. SPC mentioning the possibility of a *widespread* severe weather event on Saturday across the Ohio Valley.


...D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains...
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to
approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday.
This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a
northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s
dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in
proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon
based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening
flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing
along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS,
shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective
environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g.
30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only
emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely
be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend
holds over the next 24 hours.


...D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley...
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement
regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the
surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This
will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday
afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of
new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification
of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture
return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless,
intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the
potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with
D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model
trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality
increases.


Looking at Saturday though, SCP and EHI values don't stand out at all, but dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s, with 500mb speeds at 70 knots, and 700 and 850mb wind speeds around 50-60 knots. So if SCP and EHI values increase, would definitely start to be concerned about Saturday.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Friday and Saturday (especially) are days we need to keep tabs on. SPC mentioning the possibility of a *widespread* severe weather event on Saturday across the Ohio Valley.


...D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains...
Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to
approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday.
This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a
northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s
dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in
proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon
based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening
flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing
along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS,
shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective
environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g.
30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only
emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely
be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend
holds over the next 24 hours.


...D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley...
Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement
regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the
surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This
will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday
afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of
new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification
of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture
return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless,
intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the
potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with
D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model
trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality
increases.


Looking at Saturday though, SCP and EHI values don't stand out at all, but dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s, with 500mb speeds at 70 knots, and 700 and 850mb wind speeds around 50-60 knots. So if SCP and EHI values increase, would definitely start to be concerned about Saturday.

Presumably why. If GFS trends to the Euro here, woah

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I would not rule out a strong tornado in W NY on Tuesday if a discrete cell can mature. Strong low level shear and adequate instability will be in place for the region. Regarding what @jharris0220 said, the STJ merging with your main jet may be crucial in this setup for Friday. Euro not building a strong LLJ until after dark in SW KS and SE KS

Also, this is just wowzers from the Euro.



That is a volatile setup given the almost broken line of pearls on the EURO.

 

[JPWX]

The Mid-South region will be in the crosshairs as well

 

[US_Highway15]

I would not rule out a strong tornado in W NY on Tuesday if a discrete cell can mature. Strong low level shear and adequate instability will be in place for the region. Regarding what @jharris0220 said, the STJ merging with your main jet may be crucial in this setup for Friday. Euro not building a strong LLJ until after dark in SW KS and SE KS

Also, this is just wowzers from the Euro.

View attachment 52363
View attachment 52364
That is a volatile setup given the almost broken line of pearls on the EURO.

So basically worst case scenario is an outbreak across IL/IN again

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Per 12Z CAMS, southern Wisconsin doesn't really need to be in SPC's slight risk. Only the typically aggressive RRFS has us getting much of anything tonight/early tomorrow morning, and that only really in the southernmost tier of counties.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

If there's one thing i'm learning about the MJO, it's that it's difficult to locate and predict, but according to most models it has restrengthened the last few days and is rapidly on the move. The Euro, GFS, GEFS, and JMA have it currently transitioning from phase 8 to Phase 1. And they all have it forecast to be in phase 2 by April 3-5.

On this graphic you can see where we are on March 29th (Red line ending in phase 8). The green line is the GEFS forecast and the blue line is the GFS. Each dot on those lines represents one day. Both put us in phase 2 by April 3rd.



The Euro does a great job showing how much of a clusterfvck forecasting long term placement is, but the pink dots are the day 5 forecast, and pretty much all of them are in phase 2.



The JMA is also forecasting Phase 2. It's also important to reiterate, the strength of the MJO the day of a severe weather event does not matter at all. 47% of all 100+ tornado outbreaks (since 1980) and 39% of all EF4s (since 2000) occur when it is weak (inside the circle). 34% of 100+ outbreaks and 44% of EF4s occurred at moderate strength (just outside the circle). Only 19% of outbreaks and 16.5% of EF4s occur when it is strong.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Getting some 3/3/25 vibes from Wednesday, a rapidly developing overnight QLCS could promote the potential for several spinups in SW OK and progressing thru. 3/3/25 was a 10 hatch in OK that precluded the 3/4 underperformance the next day.

Tomorrow continues to peak my interest for a conditional risk of tornadoes if a discrete cell maintains itself in W NY. Crapvection may limit the potential, but with strong low level shear, things could definitely go interesting tmrw. Further west with stronger upscale growth in Indiana, damaging winds and brief tornadoes at best.