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Severe Weather 2026

Grand Poo Bah said:
GEFS is way more bullish for Monday than the GFS. Even the mean supercell comp is higher and more widespread. Not sure why the operational is so much lower.

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Capping. SCP is driven by capping the majority of the time so I would not necessarily recommend relying on it in these occasions. Half of those scenarios are just the capping making the event seem more potent.

I had more confidence in a isolated svr threat but even the Euro fires bare minimum and essentially says nothing for the 30th.

The 31st remains the same and perhaps even a downtrend in terms of a svr threat, the jet remains displaced and as a result, storms will struggle to develop all through 18z-21z and if this is anything, something a bit more isolated north of the line in Indiana develops. With a weird environment of 72/57 but yet minimal instability, DCAPE is there at at least 870. Perhaps a isolated damaging wind threat? The environment in general is good enough but the environment remains untapped for a majority of the day. Eh, the Euro does actually convect at 21z and if so, it would be the same scenario I described last night, maybe more miniature supercells with a isolated tornado threat. It still remains conditional however.
 
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N0mz said:
Got a feeling that this season is gonna be below average. Nothing is near certain now, but it looks very split-flowy for the next couple of weeks. Killer EML source region could take care of the May threats as well.
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It feels below average so far relative to last year, most certainly. All of our events have featured these “mesoscale/storm scale” configurations that have allowed one cell to go crazy.

It does look like the next couple of weeks for April will be quiet, tornado wise. 2024 looked like it was dying on the vine, and you had an extremely active late April and May, starting with a bang on 4/26.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Seems the outlook for my chase tour has become a little less optimistic. While still certainly could be worse, I'm seeing a lot of split-flow and cutoff low monkey business and little signal for a coherent, negatively-tilted trough ejection with the energy focused and overspreading a robust warm/moist sector at peak heating. IIRC it seems like when those do occur, such as 3/31/23 and 4/26/24, there's usually a pretty decent signal at fairly long range, although of course they can always uptrend or downtrend with time (look at 4/4/23, which was thought to have the potential to eclipse 3/31 even as 3/31 was ongoing).
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3/14-15 of last year were also really apparent up to 10 days out.
 
Based on the Day 3 outlook, Monday night-Tuesday might be one of those sneaky late night/early morning significant hail events around here (like we had one of last April). I tend to overlook those because I'm primarily looking for daytime supercells with a tornado threat.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Based on the Day 3 outlook, Monday night-Tuesday might be one of those sneaky late night/early morning significant hail events around here (like we had one of last April). I tend to overlook those because I'm primarily looking for daytime supercells with a tornado threat.
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Feel like I do agree, storms should probably ride that MUCAPE regime around 12z-15z. This is the best opportunity to fire since MUCAPE reaches 2k around now. Tough forecast tbh, but if a storm gets going in S WI around then, then severe hail is possible
 
ColdFront said:
It feels below average so far relative to last year, most certainly. All of our events have featured these “mesoscale/storm scale” configurations that have allowed one cell to go crazy.

It does look like the next couple of weeks for April will be quiet, tornado wise. 2024 looked like it was dying on the vine, and you had an extremely active late April and May, starting with a bang on 4/26.
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For the last several years we have at least one fairly productive stretch of tornado activity, wouldn't be surprised if that stretch was in the later parts of April into May, maybe even with some later-season surprises across the South. Interestingly, though it's felt pretty quiet, we are still above average at the moment, not by a ton but by a noticeable amount.
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Clancy said:
For the last several years we have at least one fairly productive stretch of tornado activity, wouldn't be surprised if that stretch was in the later parts of April into May, maybe even with some later-season surprises across the South. Interestingly, though it's felt pretty quiet, we are still above average at the moment, not by a ton but by a noticeable amount.
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185 confirmed tornadoes this month. I do believe that is above for usual March.
 
Austin Dawg said:
I am trying to remember, wasn't March very quiet in 2011?
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Average March U.S. tornadoes is 80
It was.
March 2011: 11 events (10 Slight Risk events with only 1 Moderate Risk). 75 tornadoes.
March 2026: 11 events (4 Slight Risk, 5 ENH, 2 Moderate). 185 tornadoes.
Boy that's creepy how similar the number of events is :oops:
 
GFS 18z introduced this for my area on the 4th. A potentially damaging windstorm with 65-70 mph winds. Intense LLJ above this could mix down stronger. I'm still awaiting trends but safe to say I'm excited if this verifies just from experience, this would not be great in terms of tree damage.

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This is the LLJ btw. I will try get footage if this signal holds.
 
JPWX said:
Average March U.S. tornadoes is 80
It was.
March 2011: 11 events (10 Slight Risk events with only 1 Moderate Risk). 75 tornadoes.
March 2026: 11 events (4 Slight Risk, 5 ENH, 2 Moderate). 185 tornadoes.
Boy that's creepy how similar the number of events is :oops:
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Doing some reading on the MJO and it appears Phases 7 and 8 are when the most tornadoes happen, but phase 2 is when the strongest tornadoes happen. We've been in 7 and 8, and we're heading towards phase 2 by the end of April.

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Phase 2 shows enhanced violent tornado day (VTD) activity, with frequencies of 5.5% in March, 10.8% in April, and 12.5% in May. This enhancement is statistically significant during March-May.

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Here's a spaghetti plot of our current MJO and forecast over the next month. Looks like we're going to start April off in Phase 7 or 8, then potentially end the month in phase 1 or 2. Looks like late April and May could get extremely intense depending on the strength of the MJO. According to the study I'm reading, Phase 1 shows no statistically significant enhancement or reduction in VTD frequency compared to climatology. In fact, the document does not report any notable tornado activity anomalies for phase 1 across the various tornado metrics examined. The contrast is particularly striking when comparing phase 2 to other phases: VTD frequencies during phase 2 are substantially higher than any other phase

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In conclusion, we could have an over average amount of tornadoes in early April, and transition to stronger tornadoes by the end of April and May
 
Very interesting. And makes perfect sense given what I'm seeing for April. I'm also planning to do a MJO linkage, but focus more on how many total severe outbreaks/events occur during each phase.
 
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