WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Continuing to remain conservative here, still feel like the HRRR is a tad bit overdoing this so I'll stick with QLCS for now. Several spinups becoming a possibility now N IN to N OH 00z-03z
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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
It's one run of the HRRR and I'm presuming it's a bullish outlier until we get into the 24 hr range but I just can't see a well maintained discrete mode with this one. Even NAM's held its guard on it
Kds86z
Member
REGARDLESS, 200-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IF SUPERCELLS CAN BE MAINTAINED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AD
US_Highway15
Member
IWX AFD:
"It looks like the low levels will be saturated Thursday morning so
we`ll have some work to do to get instability created ahead of our
thunderstorm chance later Thursday. Another stronger area of mid
level lapse rates push into the area during the day Thursday and
this helps to keep the lid on the area until the afternoon or
evening. We`ll probably need to wait until better large scale ascent
arrives to break this cap and, while the NAM pushes through a small
area of large scale ascent with an initial wave rotating through,
the better chance of such a cap break occurs later, towards 21-00z
time frame. Already by midday Thursday, 60 degree dew points work
into the area and PWAT anomalies reach 3 to 5 SDs above normal
closer to the arriving cold front 21-00z. It appears initial shear
may be perpendicular to the boundary, but will be quick to turn
parallel meaning any initial cells that area able to form out
in front of the boundary could have discrete characteristics,
but will be quick to congeal into a linear structure. 40 to 60
kts of effective shear swinging through and pockets of 200 units
of effective helicity will make wind damage and large hail the
main threats, but especially if those discrete cells are able to
form, there could be some rotating cells out in front of the
line. Depending on how quickly the line moves, there could be
some embedded vorticies within the line to make tornadoes a
threat as well, but confidence on those forming is lower than
the above two threats. Given the boundary parallel shear
tendency, flooding will be possible later in the line`s
evolution, but this would likely be from training cells as
opposed to backbuilding cells. The MBE vector appears strong
enough according to NAM Bufkit. It appears the strongest part of
the line will be out of the area by 11 pm or so but some rain
could lag the line."
"It looks like the low levels will be saturated Thursday morning so
we`ll have some work to do to get instability created ahead of our
thunderstorm chance later Thursday. Another stronger area of mid
level lapse rates push into the area during the day Thursday and
this helps to keep the lid on the area until the afternoon or
evening. We`ll probably need to wait until better large scale ascent
arrives to break this cap and, while the NAM pushes through a small
area of large scale ascent with an initial wave rotating through,
the better chance of such a cap break occurs later, towards 21-00z
time frame. Already by midday Thursday, 60 degree dew points work
into the area and PWAT anomalies reach 3 to 5 SDs above normal
closer to the arriving cold front 21-00z. It appears initial shear
may be perpendicular to the boundary, but will be quick to turn
parallel meaning any initial cells that area able to form out
in front of the boundary could have discrete characteristics,
but will be quick to congeal into a linear structure. 40 to 60
kts of effective shear swinging through and pockets of 200 units
of effective helicity will make wind damage and large hail the
main threats, but especially if those discrete cells are able to
form, there could be some rotating cells out in front of the
line. Depending on how quickly the line moves, there could be
some embedded vorticies within the line to make tornadoes a
threat as well, but confidence on those forming is lower than
the above two threats. Given the boundary parallel shear
tendency, flooding will be possible later in the line`s
evolution, but this would likely be from training cells as
opposed to backbuilding cells. The MBE vector appears strong
enough according to NAM Bufkit. It appears the strongest part of
the line will be out of the area by 11 pm or so but some rain
could lag the line."
tennessee storm chaser
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Kind been a boring severe wx season in a way for Dixie and Midsouth regions…. Like get one decent chance for a good chase .
Central Ohio Wx
Member
For tomorrow:
Might go on a chase up near Mansfield, but idk. Would be my first ever.
Might go on a chase up near Mansfield, but idk. Would be my first ever.
kcyalater
Member
dixie still showing nothing through early april. i think we may have seen a bit of a climatological pattern change with a shift in low tracks more to the NW earlier in the season. late season tracks still favor the midwest. i don’t know what to make of it.
That's gotta be one of the crazier updraft helicity swaths I've seen. Absolute chonker.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Which website do you see this with, if you don't mind me asking? I use the Skip Talbot's site but it's hard to navigate.
This RAP sounding I just pulled from directly in front of the chonker swath makes me think we may want a thread at this point.
Edit: here's another, albeit more cherry picked sounding
Edit: here's another, albeit more cherry picked sounding
What is this graphic representing? Just severe weather probabilities?
Last edited:
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Severe probabilities overall. Can be found here.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
As an Alabama resident, I’m fine with a boring spring.
Kds86z
Member
18z HRRR has zero chill.
Gotta wait for the 21z RAP for updates there, the NAM is even more unhinged than normal.
Gotta wait for the 21z RAP for updates there, the NAM is even more unhinged than normal.
Last edited:
Kds86z
Member
We have a thread.
kcyalater
Member
not a peep through first week in april.
People people the first week of April (probably extending beyond that) holds severe weather threats. Given that March was largely inactive down this way (compared to last few years), April is gonna be busier than normal (again compared to the last few years in which April wasn't that busy). How busy remains to be seen though. 