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Severe Weather 2026

Potentially quite an active early April on tap for much of the CONUS. Very busy, so not much time to prognosticate today, but anywhere from the Plains to the Midwest to the Deep South could be getting a taste of true spring during the start of the month. Some signs of possible energetic trough ejection in the April 3-4 time frame, but will have to watch, wait and see before really latching onto anything.
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KakashiHatake2000 said:
it is in a different language there is a translation available but just talking about the risk for severe weather in Middle East
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Quick translation using the internet and my terrible knowledge of Arabic vocabulary:
Thursday (March 26, 2026) will have a unique risk of "desert cyclones" in the Middle East, including Dubai, the UAE, northern Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar. Severe thunderstorms are likely with winds and hail. Flooding is also expected, with up to a year's worth of rainfall occurring in a short period of time. Rainfall totals from 3 to 6 inches are likely across large areas, with the potential for locally-higher amounts. A similar event occurred on April 15-17, 2024, when rain totals of 6.45 inches fell at Dubai International Airport, causing more than 1,200 flights to be cancelled, and flooding airport runways. Isolated storms may also form in southwestern Saudi Arabia, near the Red Sea, where higher humidity is present. This threat will affect parts of the regions of Makkah, Al-Baha, Asir, and Jazan, as well as Tihama and Azal in northwestern Yemen. Inland, the Najran region in southern Saudi Arabia may experience dust storms, as thunderstorms push masses of dry air outward.
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Thursday is looking a bit better for svr wx, but it appears that the discrete storm mode has turned more into a quick and rapid upscale QLCS event. If line orientation turns favorable, then a isolated tornado threat seems possible. This QLCS could also conditionally feature 65-70 mph winds, given DCAPE of 1k, and if the line is cut off by outflow, this would cause the damaging wind threat to remain prominent.

2026032418_NAM_054_39.65,-87.99_winter_mu.png

Do not get hooked up on these colours, but vertical velocity has turned out to be a good tool for determining if cells may mature or the potential storm mode at play for events. This is what it depicts with this environment.
Screenshot_2026-03-24-22-43-26-835.jpeg

More of a broken QLCS of sorts, line segments? This QLCS doesn't seem TOO great for line orientation, but the isolated tor threat will be there and most likely peaks around this exact area of E IL/W IN. I have been eying areas of Ohio later on that night as the QLCS ramps up and strengthens with a intense LLJ but I'm iffy on whether this QLCS would be conducive to certain svr potential including tornadoes and damaging wind given a nearly stable surface filling in. Will wait for more data to come in before I discuss that time.
 
00z HRRR threw a crazy curveball for Thursday, including volatile low level shear and adequate instability.

Question? Cells maturing. If anything, that run is explicit sigtor potential conditionally on the front but can storms mature? Very interesting trend
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
00z HRRR threw a crazy curveball for Thursday, including volatile low level shear and adequate instability.

Question? Cells maturing. If anything, that run is explicit sigtor potential conditionally on the front but can storms mature? Very interesting trend
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I personally don't take the HRRR into consideration this far ahead. Will probably start looking a bit deeper into the HRRR starting tomorrow night, as time gets closer, but I understand why someone would right now.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I personally don't take the HRRR into consideration this far ahead. Will probably start looking a bit deeper into the HRRR starting tomorrow night, as time gets closer, but I understand why someone would right now.
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It's the best CAM at range and it's just a scenario that I suggesting, if I'm being honest, i should've prefaced with a grain of salt but a volatile NW flow setup in March just doesn't make possible sense to me.
 
hrrr_2026032500_047_40.74--85.81.png

A sounding i pulled from N IN in the vicinity of a MINI OWS supercell. This sounding may look "woah, concerning" but your thermodynamics say that this environment isn't hostile but it isn't great for maintained long lived cells. That inversion is also a major question mark. This setup absolutely has my eye should this trend maintain.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
View attachment 52255

A sounding i pulled from N IN in the vicinity of a MINI OWS supercell. This sounding may look "woah, concerning" but your thermodynamics say that this environment isn't hostile but it isn't great for maintained long lived cells. That inversion is also a major question mark. This setup absolutely has my eye should this trend maintain.
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No thread needed?
 
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