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Severe Weather 2026

1774276589464.png
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230859
SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture
advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints
gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is
forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by
Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should
develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong
deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the
afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from
northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern
Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the
afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will
remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast
on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its
wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much
of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most
areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level
shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level
moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into
Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity
would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops.
However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range
in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

heyo broyles is back
 
jackhutwx said:
View attachment 52197
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230859
SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture
advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid
Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints
gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is
forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by
Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should
develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong
deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the
afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from
northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern
Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the
afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will
remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast
on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its
wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much
of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most
areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level
shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level
moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into
Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity
would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops.
However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range
in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

heyo broyles is back
Click to expand...

Midwest northwest flow setups in March, what devilment is this?

GFS500.jpg
 
1774287330918.png
Columbus broke its all-time March temperature record yesterday, which leaves me unsurprised that we had multiple strong thunderstorms in the area.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Wanna see something really crazy? Dark red represents 30 year high temps (for March 21st I believe).

View attachment 52204
Click to expand...
I love how a temperature peak follows the spine of the Blue Ridge into Virginia where it shifts to the Allegheny Mountains before ending on Laurel or Chestnut Ridge in western Pennsylvania. Why? Idk!
 
Here comes your next severe threat. Probably more so over into April
precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours (5).png
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
It's still all over the place, but the 3rd is definitely the most impressive looking day so far. Pulled a PDS tornado sounding in Rochester, MN on the 00z. Now it's moved to Kansas on the 6z.

View attachment 52216
Click to expand...
ML has a large area highlighted for the 3rd:
1774363268863.png
 
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