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Severe Weather 2026

I seen the Euro jump on this threat but I didn't believe it due to the lack of much model agreement. 18z GFS however suggests that late on Thursday, a sneaky severe threat may develop in the same regions affected tomorrow. This time, the best threat is near SE OH.

While things will remain capped strongly for most of the day, convective activity may rapidly propagate and go linear towards 00z as a inversion settles in.


With a strong LLJ atop it, you get this profile.
gfs_2026032118_126_40.0--81.75.png

Should a broken QLCS develop, i would definitely see isolated severe potential. We will see what the trends are.

As for tomorrow, i do think a little downtrend on your eastward threat occurred but I see things definitely centering towards SE OH again. I think a sneaky significant hail threat exists with any discrete cell. Atop the MUCAPE regime in Central OH, if a cell doesn't grow upscale, significant hail would be possible atop the freezing layer with HGZ.



hrrr_2026032118_033_38.77--81.51.png

The pattern isn't particularly active but some more subtle mesoscale days at hand these next few weeks before April kicks in.
 
20260321_215839.jpg

Just a joke but looks like you and any body else in Ohio valley mid Atlantic to New England area could be getting squirrel to llama sized hail tomorrow
 
hrrr_2026032200_027_38.66--85.41.png

This looks like a bong average poor sloppy severe sounding. But this type of sounding is responsible for MULTIPLE sneaky severe hail events. Taken in SE IL towards 03z, as SB instability begins to weaken, your elevated instability pops up. With line segments moving through the area at this time, these storms are feeling everything above 3km. With straight hodographs and etc, ans intense 500 mb flow, combining with the HGZ and stronger buoyancy leads me to believe we may see several scattered sig hail reports tmrw. The round at 00z may produce sig hail but for some reason I have confidence this round will most likely. Steep lapse rates aloft that elevated instability just adds fuel to the updraft for large hail.
 
Damaging wind/large hail is the theme of the day. Last look at CAMs before this event:
I don't really believe in the bullish outprint in PA today, storms may be more anemic in nature then anything. I still stick with my stance that the elevated segments after 9pm could drop some large hail if they don't cluster. Steep lapse rates aloft the HGZ and enough instability with intense mid level flow before it becomes a iffy squall with 40-50 mph wind gusts. I could see a downburst threat in PA today wit any established discrete cell
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Damaging wind/large hail is the theme of the day. Last look at CAMs before this event:
I don't really believe in the bullish outprint in PA today, storms may be more anemic in nature then anything. I still stick with my stance that the elevated segments after 9pm could drop some large hail if they don't cluster. Steep lapse rates aloft the HGZ and enough instability with intense mid level flow before it becomes an iffy squall with 40-50 mph wind gusts. I could see a downburst threat in PA today wit any established discrete cell
Click to expand...
That’s me lol.
 
Kds86z said:
83 tomorrow then 50 Monday, this wild drop will be 3rd weekend in row I believe.. smh
Click to expand...
The forecast for my area looks a bit like a rollercoaster for at least the next week or so, with highs potentially going as high as the 80s and the lows potentially going as low as the 40s. Welcome to spring in Tennessee, I guess.:p
 
Event is certainly far from over but storm coverage definitely less then expected and seems like that dry thermodynamic profile mightve partially stunted chances for damaging N wind so far. With such dry profiles, you will need plenty of instability in order to make up for it and we don't really. I'm interested further west when cells develop north of the front, that is our best chance for large hail later. Storm in SE OH looking fairly organised
 
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