Severe Weather 2026

[Jbop]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z GFS is pretty spicy for Sunday the 28th. Double-barrel 989/987-mb surface lows and potent, backed LLJ into the northern Plains. Of course it's a deterministic run a week out so it can and will change, but the general look as been there for at least a couple days' worth of runs.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sneaky Alabama tornado risk today. MCV supercell structures with a 5% spc risk.

 

[Kds86z]

Sneaky Alabama tornado risk today. MCV supercell structures with a 5% spc risk.

Covering it in thread .

 

[MichelleH]

Sneaky Alabama tornado risk today. MCV supercell structures with a 5% spc risk.

The multi-day thread still covers today.
Thread

 

[Maxis_s]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Potential active day in the plains Thursday?

 

[slenker]

Found this video. Apparently there was an intense tornado in Russia today. Looks like it had violent potential too.

 

[jiharris0220]

Potential active day in the plains Thursday?

View attachment 53850

Yes.

 

[Brice W]

Looks like something is definitely on the table for Sunday/Monday (28th/29th)

 

[jiharris0220]

View attachment 53879
View attachment 53880
Looks like something is definitely on the table for Sunday/Monday (28th/29th)

Let’s good, but that trough positioning (the fact that the jet streak is far north of the surface low) and it’s orientation over the warm sector is garbage.
To get something other than linear slop near the surface low and a blue sky snooze fast to the south, that trough would need to be lower amplitude and more negatively tilted to place the jet streak over the warm sector and more orthogonal to the PBL wind vector.
That way, we’ll have a stronger LLJ and a discrete storm mode spanning the majority of the dry line, which looks like it will have the rare north/south orientation.

 

[Brice W]

Let’s good, but that trough positioning (the fact that the jet streak is far north of the surface low) and it’s orientation over the warm sector is garbage.
To get something other than linear slop near the surface low and a blue sky snooze fast to the south, that trough would need to be lower amplitude and more negatively tilted to place the jet streak over the warm sector and more orthogonal to the PBL wind vector.
That way, we’ll have a stronger LLJ and a discrete storm mode spanning the majority of the dry line, which looks like it will have the rare north/south orientation.

Oh yeah I agree 100% but I think the thermodynamic side of the equation is impressive. Even if the trough isn’t ideally configured for a broad discrete outbreak, we’re still looking at a large warm sector with widespread 70+ dewpoints and substantial instability. Just something to keep an eye on. It doesn’t look like anything too crazy as of now.