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Severe Weather 2026

Hi lol

Just making a guest appearance before severe weather (or hurricanes???) draw me out of hibernation ha
spongebob squarepants kevin GIF
 
Before anyone these topics get riled up…

- Every storm isn’t going to do what you think it is going to do, regardless of region. Apologies in advance if Dixie doesn’t do what you think it “wants” to do or if there isn’t a lot of Plains tornadoes.

- You, yes YOU have a chance to see a tornado virtually any day…or not.

- There may or may not be a high risk. You shouldn’t waste your mental energy getting mad at the SPC if they don’t issue one.

- No, this year won’t be like 2011. It’s 2026. There’s clearly a difference.

- Don’t stop chasing, even if it means you see only one tornado for a minute, or whatever Reed Trimmer says.

- If you want a true “Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency”, play Blackjack. A Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency for your cousin an hour away when no severe weather occurs ≠ a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency another hour later if an area has a lot of warnings.

- Science and research matters. Your neighbor Billy Bob who thinks it is going to be a bad storm because the government has it out for them is likely far fetched especially when he rejects what meteorologists say.

- No risk, slight risk, high risk, your safety and being aware of outlooks in 4. (If you watch a lot of sports, you’ll get this reference)

- Many comedians tell jokes, but may also have a hint of truth in them, just like this post. ;)
 
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Before anyone these topics get riled up…

- Every storm isn’t going to do what you think it is going to do, regardless of region. Apologies in advance if Dixie doesn’t do what you think it “wants” to do or if there isn’t a lot of Plains tornadoes.

- You, yes YOU have a chance to see a tornado virtually any day…or not.

- There may or may not be a high risk. You shouldn’t waste your mental energy getting mad at the SPC if they don’t issue one.

- No, this year won’t be like 2011. It’s 2026. There’s clearly a difference.

- Don’t stop chasing, even if it means you see only one tornado for a minute, or whatever Reed Trimmer says.

- If you want a true “Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency”, play Blackjack. A Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency for your cousin an hour away when no severe weather occurs ≠ a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency another hour later if an area has a lot of warnings.

- Science and research matters. Your neighbor Billy Bob who thinks it is going to be a bad storm because the government has it out for them is likely far fetched especially when he rejects what meteorologists say.

- No risk, slight risk, high risk, your safety and being aware of outlooks in 4. (If you watch a lot of sports, you’ll get this reference)

- Many comedians tell jokes, but may also have a hint of truth in them, just like this post.
i totally forgot that a particular word is Banned on here, bUt if you read that bulletin point about blackjack again, or if you read thiS message carefully, you’ll know which word i’m Trying to say :p
 
View attachment 46301View attachment 46302
Models have a weak la nina around the end of the year decaying into enso neutral, pretty similar to 2025
I know every year is different but I Will be interested to see if it has a positive TNI/similar “upper end” outbreak potential signature like 2025 that Fred and Matt identified and discussed last year. Just with the decaying La Niña, if that is indeed how it goes.
 
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