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Severe Weather 2024

Thursday could also be a very bad day for a severe threat, as many people will be out shopping day after Christmas clearance deals (I had planned on it) and won't be paying attention to the weather. TV mets might want to start hinting at the possibility so people will at least have it in the back of their minds.
 
I hope my two local NWS offices get on board soon. The discussions lately have been lackluster with details. And look I know it's hard to go into in depth with overall threats when your several days out, but don't just say "no severe weather expected."

I mean. Late December with temperatures near 70 post Christmas. That's just asking for trouble.
 
JPWX said:
I hope my two local NWS offices get on board soon. The discussions lately have been lackluster with details. And look I know it's hard to go into in depth with overall threats when your several days out, but don't just say "no severe weather expected."

I mean. Late December with temperatures near 70 post Christmas. That's just asking for trouble.
Click to expand...
The reason why is there has been no consistency in the trough progression from the global models, thus confidence is very low.
 
I guess what I'm getting at with that is it's hard to message the threat when you have little to go on except your own instincts, overall pattern, and past experience. Plus I'm looking at this from an EMA perspective too like what's the best message to send my EMA director. That sort of thing.
 
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe-weather potential is still expected for Days 4-6
Thursday-Saturday, as an upper trough emerging from California and
the Southwest deserts moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South by
Thursday/Day 4. At least a low-end multi-day regional severe risk is
expected across south-central and east/southeast Texas towards parts
of the ArkLaTex, and possibly the Lower Mississippi Valley. In
particular, Thursday/Day 4 could ultimately warrant Slight
Risk-caliber severe probabilities across south-central to
east/southeast Texas although guidance variability persists, while
objective/machine-learning guidance generally also persist with
sub-15 percent probabilities.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024
Click to expand...

Now that "go week" is here, after a lot of flip-flopping back and forth over the last ~200 hours; global guidance has generally trended away from the higher-end solutions and toward a trough ejection that is less favorable for widespread significant severe weather. This is good news of course, but those days still bear watching over the areas SPC mentions here as the risk will be non-zero.
 
The consistency is there for a severe threat to occur in the Arklatex region on Thursday. Models diverge substantially thereafter for Saturday’s potential. The GFS/GEM are not so favorable, but the EURO, EURO AI, UK, ICON, JMA, and ACC still give life to a severe risk across the Southeast.
 
Looks like some repeat risks for east Texas through the week. For the Southeast, Sunday would be our best chance, but these risks are rather marginal and conditional, with much less impressive synoptic structure currently forecast compared to previous depictions. Still would be on the lookout for some marginal risks into the end of the month across parts of MS/AL.
1734986299401.png
 
Pretty nasty storms in the Houston area just a few moments ago. Was in the middle of the path of the tornado warned storm. Passed a couple miles to my North. Thankfully we are all okay. Nothing major thankfully happened.
 
Merry Christmas, y'all! We are getting our severe weather or watches last of the year, hopefully tonight.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-149-161-185-201-225-287-
289-291-293-313-331-339-347-373-395-401-407-453-455-471-473-477-
491-250600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0712.241225T0015Z-241225T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON
CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO
FAYETTE FREESTONE GRIMES
HARRIS HOUSTON LEE
LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE
MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON
RUSK SAN JACINTO TRAVIS
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
$$
 
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