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Severe Weather 2024

...MS/AL...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the cold front overnight -- most likely after 06Z -- with
marginal potential for a tornado, isolated damaging winds or severe
hail.

Despite the veered (southwesterly) surface flow ahead of the front,
a 40-50-kt west-southwesterly LLJ should contribute to long low-
level hodographs with some curvature. That will foster 200-300 J/kg
effective and 0-1-km SRH values (locally higher), amidst 45-55-kt
effective-shear magnitudes and a narrow, front-parallel plume of
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, with the veering prefrontal flow,
lift along the front will be compromised to some extent, causing
uncertainty on storm coverage. Also, weak boundary-layer lapse
rates -- characteristic of this time of day in marginal-moisture
scenarios -- may yield long time windows for convective deepening,
potentially limiting storm strength at maturity if activity merges
with other precip or moves into weaker instability, as progged.
Given these concerns, the threat continues to appear limited but
nonzero in nature, and has been removed from previous northwestern
areas where it now appears frontal passage will precede substantial
deep development.
 
The amount of storm coverage seems to be the question as well as timing of initiation. Otherwise, latest HRRR is favorable for severe storms. Sounding off HRRR near Amory, MS.
 

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JPWX said:
The amount of storm coverage seems to be the question as well as timing of initiation. Otherwise, latest HRRR is favorable for severe storms. Sounding off HRRR near Amory, MS.
Click to expand...
Yeah, seems the biggest unknown is really whether we get much in the way of storms at all. Could just be some rain showers for a lot of folks, hard to say. If it moves on the faster side of things, even less of an opportunity for convection.
 
18Z HRRR and NAM 3km saw slight increases in storm intensity and coverage, but the system looks to be moving fast, and I'm doubtful there will be much time for most areas to see much. Could be a transient wind/tornado threat, mostly for central/southern MS/AL and again later for eastern GA and the Carolinas.
1732749810302.png
 
Thankfully for the foreseeable future (now and into mid December) the large scale Synoptic pattern simply does not promote much in the way of SVR weather outbreaks.

+PNA/-WPO/+EPO and a stout Hudson Bay Low is a set in stone east based trough pattern where the eastern/central US sees plenty arctic air outbreaks but lots of dry air.
1732752706995.png
The low height anomalies over Eastern Asia/Russia is producing a very strong jet streak which is breaking down into troughs under the Aleutian islands. This only reinforces the mid latitude ridging over western North America causing our +PNA pattern.
1732752971046.png
The MJO is currently in phase 3/4 which the jet streak over Eastern Asia appreciates very much and until the MJO moves into phases 5/6 I wouldn’t expect anything significant regarding SVR outbreaks. Other than the occasional marginal risk days.
1732753779999.png
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have some snow deprived weeping to do.
 
The low-end risk for storms tonight into tomorrow morning has been extended eastward into parts of GA.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into
early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and
northern Alabama, parts of northern Georgia, and the western/central
Florida Panhandle.

...01 Update...
An upper-level trough currently in the central/southern Plains will
continue to progress eastward this evening into Thursday morning. A
surface low now in the Mid-South will also deepen this
evening/overnight. Moisture return is expected ahead of this surface
low and low-level southerly winds increase ahead of a cold front.
While the strongest mid-level ascent should remain in the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, some modest ascent, coupled with
low-level moistening, should promote near-surface to surface based
destabilization across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Observed soundings from the region this evening showed steep
mid-level lapse rates along with a dry pocket of mid-level air that
becomes more pronounced with eastward extent. Confidence in isolated
to widely scattered storms is greatest in Mississippi/Alabama, but
slightly greater mid-level ascent and anticipated low-level
moistening also suggests some risk may extend into northwest
Georgia. Isolated damaging winds are likely the primary hazard.
Despite veered low-level flow ahead of the front, strong 850 mb
winds will lead to sufficient hodograph curvature to support a
isolated tornado risk for the strongest surface-based storms. A
secondary risk area in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia
will be driven by low-level theta-e advection with similar hazards
expected.

..Wendt.. 11/28/2024
Click to expand...
1732756238368.png
 
Some strong storms are moving along a corridor of elevated mid-level CAPE. Expected to potentially present a wind threat around the BHM area in the 3-4 AM CST time-frame.
1732770323219.png1732770302894.png
 
Ledian said:
December 9th might be worth keeping an eye on.
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Yep. Either a heavy rain/severe threat or a freezing rain threat if the Canadian is correct
 
After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and
ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this
weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a
series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more
progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast,
the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for
significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture
intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a
progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe
weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level
pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS
which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF
eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western
trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across
the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the
better low-level instability.

Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next
week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific
periods at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/04/2024
 
MichelleH said:
After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and
ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this
weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a
series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more
progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast,
the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for
significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of
this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture
intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a
progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe
weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level
pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS
which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF
eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western
trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across
the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the
better low-level instability.

Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next
week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific
periods at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/04/2024
Click to expand...
I smell a thread.
 
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