Severe Weather 2024

[JPWX]

I like the RRFS and 3km NAM solutions better than the latest HRRR.

 

[Clancy]

I like the RRFS and 3km NAM solutions better than the latest HRRR.

Yeah, tend to think the NAM is probably closer to the real thing; HRRR's evolution doesn't look quite "natural" for a summertime situation here considering the forcing that is likely to exist from the early-day MCS across AR, which is also mentioned by the SPC.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning.
Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing
convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist
low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to
destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon.
Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of
AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially
reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to
remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper
trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to
the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening
west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support
sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current
expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the
outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and
subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN,
northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening.
Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging
winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any
marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection
should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as
it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN.

A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on
recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it
may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day
across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern
periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear
should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated
hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust
cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep
the overall severe threat fairly isolated.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr now looks like nothing for my area lol

 

[Clancy]

Hrrr now looks like nothing for my area lol

Certified short-range CAMs moment, changing course every other run.

 

[jiharris0220]

Hrrr now looks like nothing for my area lol

Go outside and dive headfirst into the ground, you have a better chance of a portal opening up just in time to teleport you to Planet X than the hrrr verifying during summer.

 

[TH2002]

Go outside and dive headfirst into the ground, you have a better chance of a portal opening up just in time to teleport you to Planet X than the hrrr verifying during summer.

Hmmm... why didn't the portal open?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Pretty drastic change on the 12Z GFS compared to the 06Z, much more robust severe threat for southern Wisconsin Thursday evening on that run. We'll see if it holds or flips back again...

 

[Ledian]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for my area until 10:00 tonight. Wind and hail-driven as i expected, though i am a little surprised at the 10% tornado probability

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for my area until 10:00 tonight. Wind and hail-driven as i expected, though i am a little surprised at the 10% tornado probability

10% tornado probs?

 

[Ledian]

10% tornado probs?

That's what's in the watch probabilities. I'd say i don't expect to have to get in the hall, but this is 2024, so i don't want to jink myself

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's what's in the watch probabilities. I'd say i don't expect to have to get in the hall, but this is 2024, so i don't want to jink myself

Oh I thought you meant SPC outlook probability for tornadoes lol. I see now what your talking about

 

[Clancy]

Some storms have gotten going over central AR.

 

[Ledian]

It’ll be raining for a while here…huge clap of thunder scared me a minute ago

 

[JPWX]

Well, after the "surprise" EF1 tornado in SE Itawamba County last Wednesday night with not even a 2% tornado probability or mention of the word tornado leading up to that event, I took it upon myself to mention a tornado possible in my weather update to my weather text subscribers today. Not taking any chances this time.

 

[Ledian]

Phew...looking at the hail core east of here, i am glad this storm passed when it did. Still monitoring more development back towards Oxford and Batesville

Some of the loudest thunder i've heard in a while. Even knocked out our power briefly. I think i also briefly heard small hail hitting the roof

 

[Clancy]

That's some interesting structure on that supercell NNW of Columbus, MS.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Well, after the "surprise" EF1 tornado in SE Itawamba County last Wednesday night with not even a 2% tornado probability or mention of the word tornado leading up to that event, I took it upon myself to mention a tornado possible in my weather update to my weather text subscribers today. Not taking any chances this time.

2024 continues to be off the rails

 

[MichelleH]

That's some interesting structure on that supercell NNW of Columbus, MS.

I was worried about dealing with interesting tonight.

 

[Clancy]

Lots of hail incoming to Amory and Smithville @JPWX

 

[JPWX]

Lots of hail incoming to Amory and Smithville @JPWX

Yeah. I just came in from putting the GoPro out