• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2024

Next shot at potential for heavy rain/flash flooding and possible severe weather.

Anyways, I'm interested to see how far north this risk late week gets.
 

Attachments

  • precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
    precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
    302.9 KB · Views: 0
TornadoFan said:
It's really baffling. Reilly Dibble had a tornado on his stream just a few minutes ago.
Click to expand...

MichelleH said:
And the warning says radar indicated. SMH
Click to expand...

I don't think NWS staff have the time to watch streams; they're too busy doing other things during storms. That's part of why I dislike watching chasers who livestream. Every time I've seen them spot a tornado, they don't contact the proper authorities, and then various folks wonder why a tornado is still "only" radar-indicated, etc. If a chaser spots a tornado, it is on them to report it. After-the-fact reports are certainly still helpful for surveying, but if the goal is warning people in the moment, then let the proper authorities know so that warnings can get out there.

So, yes, until someone tells them that they've spotted something, they're not going to say it's anything other than radar-indicated. And if chasers are too busy doing the things they do for views to report it to NWS, then NWS isn't going to know. They're not mind-readers, and I don't think any of the NWS offices get paid well enough to have someone watch social media and streams during these events.

It does sound like they were slow in getting a radar-indicated warning out, and that's unfortunate, but let's not expect meteorologists to be omnipotent when it comes to what's being shown on various livestreams, OK? <3
 
notsoencrypted said:
I don't think NWS staff have the time to watch streams; they're too busy doing other things during storms. That's part of why I dislike watching chasers who livestream. Every time I've seen them spot a tornado, they don't contact the proper authorities, and then various folks wonder why a tornado is still "only" radar-indicated, etc. If a chaser spots a tornado, it is on them to report it. After-the-fact reports are certainly still helpful for surveying, but if the goal is warning people in the moment, then let the proper authorities know so that warnings can get out there.

So, yes, until someone tells them that they've spotted something, they're not going to say it's anything other than radar-indicated. And if chasers are too busy doing the things they do for views to report it to NWS, then NWS isn't going to know. They're not mind-readers, and I don't think any of the NWS offices get paid well enough to have someone watch social media and streams during these events.

It does sound like they were slow in getting a radar-indicated warning out, and that's unfortunate, but let's not expect meteorologists to be omnipotent when it comes to what's being shown on various livestreams, OK? <3
Click to expand...

When an office is in warning ops, they’re typically not monitoring chaser streams unless it’s pointed out. In large-scale events, you usually have someone (WCM/MIC) that is keeping SitAwr and coordinating the event from a high level perspective, monitoring sources, news, and Slack for additional information. But yes, calling the NWS office/911/EMA in the jurisdiction having authority is the best way to spread the word.
 
Clancy said:
Generally backing up previous thoughts on this season. Active spring on tap.
Click to expand...

Right over the Mid-South region and ME! LOL
 
From the NWS Northern Indiana Public Information Statement section:

...NWS Damage Survey for March 5, 2023...

A brief EF-0 landspout tornado occurred between Ottawa and
Leipsic, Ohio this afternoon around 2:34 PM ET. Several photos
and videos were taken of the funnel cloud and developing landspout
tornado along State Road 65 south of Leipsic. The Putnam County
Sheriff`s office and trained spotters reported damage to a home
along Road H5 just east of State Road 65. The tornado was on the
ground for only a minute before moving northeast and dissipating
in an open field along Road 5H.

.20240305...

Rating: EF0
Estimated Peak Wind: 70 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.21 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 50 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 03/05/2024
Start Time: 02:34 PM EDT
Start Location: 3 SSE Leipsic / Putnam County / OH
Start Lat/Lon: 41.0591 / -83.98

End Date: 03/05/2024
End Time: 02:35 PM EDT
End Location: 3 SSE Leipsic / Putnam County / OH
End Lat/Lon: 41.0597 / -83.976

Survey Summary:
A brief EF-0 landspout tornado occurred south of Leipsic, Ohio
this afternoon. Several photos and videos were taken of the
tornado along SR65 near the intersection with Road H5. The
tornado caused damage to one home on Road H5, with loss of the
roof, shingles, and some siding. A poorly built attached garage
collapsed, and debris could be seen scattered to the northeast of
the home. The tornado quickly dissipated in an open field just
north of the intersection of Road H5 and Road 5H, just east of
SR65.
Click to expand...
 
Clancy said:
Generally backing up previous thoughts on this season. Active spring on tap.
Click to expand...

Does anyone know where I can find the 500mb pattern for past years?
 
JPWX said:
Does anyone know where I can find the 500mb pattern for past years?
Click to expand...
Sadly I've no clue where to go for long-term archived data outside of individual events.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Next potential event still showing up on the GFS in the timeframe of the 14th-15th. Lots of details yet to iron out of course regarding timing, location and ceiling of greatest threat.
Click to expand...
And there might be a greater flash flooding risk too with that system.
 
JPWX said:
And there might be a greater flash flooding risk too with that system.
Click to expand...

Was still trying to modify that post when you quoted me, lol.

Verbatim as of current 08/06Z run, it depicts another potential event for parts of the Midwest such as IL/IN on 3/14.

Negatives:

- Positively-tilted trough with the main energy hanging well back to the southwest at peak heating.
- Lack of a focused surface low/mass response

Positives:

- Decent moisture for the time of year (would be even better with a stronger mass response)
- Fairly zonal 500mb flow in the exit region
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Next potential event still showing up on the GFS in the timeframe of the 14th-15th. Lots of details yet to iron out of course regarding timing, location and ceiling of greatest threat.
Click to expand...
Every…..

“7 days”:eek::eek: LOL
watch me video GIF by Paramount Pictures
 
GEFS pretty consistent on possibility for favorable parameters overlap on the 15th (presenting a look similar to below for several runs), though the trough has trended towards the EPS in being a bit less impressive. Still too far out to reeeally pay attention to at this juncture I figure.
scp-prob01.conus.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top