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Severe Weather 2024

Yeah this is why you don't write off a threat. Like I said before, if the pattern favors it, it'll happen.
 
Still not completely sold on the threat for Sunday into Monday, but yeah, that's a pretty decent warm sector off the NAM. Also a strong signal on CIPS.
sfctd-imp.us_se.pngdownload.png
 
From JAN:

There remains some variability
with timing and how it will eject/progress eastward on Sunday. As a
result, there's timing differences among the global guidance.
However, recent runs show a slower timing in general. What this
means is there looks to be more time for the stalled boundary to
lift northward as a warm front Sunday afternoon/night. This would be
in response to strong ascent which will cause the surface low to
deepen more which will in-turn force the low level response to
increase southerly winds which will drive higher dew pts northward.
This all supports greater instability and potential for higher wind
shear. Temps aloft are on the cool side as well, so if we do get
warmer lower levels, the lapse rates will be steeper. Again, this
supports greater instability. All in all, the severe potential seems
to be increasing with the latest trends, esp for our S half.
Currently, SPC has a Day 4 with 15% probs touching our far SW. From
my assessment of the latest data, the 15% probs will likely get
expanded eastward and even a bit more N. The new Day 3 will be the
best way to handle this as there will be adjustments to have an area
for Slight and Marginal Risks.
Click to expand...
 
Current tornado has a downright nasty signature (and headed towards KMKX).
 
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