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Severe Weather 2024

CheeselandSkies said:
The environment those simulated cells are moving through is like 54/50 at the surface, lol. I've been surprised before by what seemingly marginal low-level thermodynamic conditions can do when compensated for by very cold air aloft/steep lapse rates and strong 3CAPE (i.e. Winterset), but I think that is pushing it.
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I'm getting Kincaid '23 vibes from this setup. Very conditional and very well could have completely Atmospheric Anti-Climax, but just enough kinematics to drop a few weak tornadoes and the Kincaid EF2.
 
Globals aren't looking half bad. Continue a bit of a northwest trend with ejections and slow down some and the Dixie states are in action.

Starting to congeal a consensus finally with globals it seems. So let's see if the parameters come together. Ejection is not as good as it was, seems like it mainly stays positive/neutral tilt would like to see it go negative but unless it slows down, I doubt it happens in time to maximize potential
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Globals aren't looking half bad. Continue a bit of a northwest trend with ejections and slow down some and the Dixie states are in action.

Starting to congeal a consensus finally with globals it seems. So let's see if the parameters come together. Ejection is not as good as it was, seems like it mainly stays positive/neutral tilt would like to see it go negative but unless it slows down, I doubt it happens in time to maximize potential
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I'm currently out of town, so haven't been keeping up as much. What day are we talking about a possible event?
 
MichelleH said:
I'm currently out of town, so haven't been keeping up as much. What day are we talking about a possible event?
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Somewhere around Sunday or Monday I think. We don't have a outlook issued for our area yet, but one for near the coast has been issued for day 4.

This one is tricky a few minor changes and this could be a decent event. Bears watching for anybody in the Dixie states. day4prob (1).gif
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Somewhere around Sunday or Monday I think. We don't have a outlook issued for our area yet, but one for near the coast has been issued for day 4.

This one is tricky a few minor changes and this could be a decent event. Bears watching for anybody in the Dixie states. View attachment 23766
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Thank you. Praying it's not Sunday. My best friend's brother's funeral is Sunday. :(
 
06z GFS doesn't look too bad. The parameters will come I think. Right now looks like south of Tuscaloosa and Jefferson county. Big question how much of messy rain and storms will be around.

06z euro favorable low position as well**
 
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JBishopwx said:
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Yep. Active Spring tornado season followed by a very active Atlantic hurricane season. Given the expectation that winter lasts into early March, I expect March to be less active than the last few years. April however is gonna be a different story
 
Feels like we are really starting to lock in on the potential now, synoptically that is atleast. I think the parameters will come, usually does with mesoscale models.

I feel like waiting a bit before doing a thread lol because the last couple have Atmospheric Anti-Climax.

Would really like to see it at least neutral /negative tilt.. but even then that doesn't matter all the time lol

 
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