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Severe threat Wednesday February 12, 2025

Before there are more threads that have to be deleted and take up space on the main page, yes, I'm creating a severe thread. This is for Wednesday, Feb. 12. For Saturday's threat, please use the appropriate thread. If there are any warnings for today, Tuesday, 2/11, please use the general severe thread unless things go wild weasel and we'll make a thread for today. Thank you.
 
Was a bit surprised to see them expand the Slight eastward. Mention of pre-frontal discrete activity catches my eye.
...Southeast...
There is a consistent signal among 12Z CAM guidance for a line of
storms to either develop south of or emanate from an expansive area
of precipitation across Louisiana tomorrow morning. There will be a
period of time during the afternoon when this line of storms may
have sufficient instability (amid a strongly sheared environment) to
support a damaging wind threat and tornado threat, particularly with
any embedded supercells). However, by late afternoon/evening this
line of storms will weaken as it moves east of the better
instability.

An additional severe weather threat will evolve from the late
afternoon into the overnight hours as the surface front surges
southeast and the low-level jet strengthens. This threat will begin
across eastern Louisiana. Earlier in the afternoon, winds will be
veered across this region, but as the front sharpens and the
low-level jet strengthens, winds are expected to back somewhat which
will increase low-level convergence along the front and strengthen
low-level shear. The southeastward acceleration of the surface front
may eventually outrun the line of storms given the mean storm motion
vector, however, 12Z guidance has indicated a greater threat for a
pre-frontal band of supercells after 06Z across southern Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle. This scenario seems reasonable given
the stronger low-level jet forecast between 06Z and 12Z and also
based on current (17Z) surface observations showing dewpoints 2 to 3
F greater than most guidance today. A pre-frontal band of supercells
would continue the severe weather threat, including the tornado
threat, through the entire overnight period. The slight risk has
been expanded south and east to address this concern.
Click to expand...
1739298755473.png
 
Skeptical of the northern extent of severe potential for tomorrow evening. Both NAM and HRRR depict a pretty hard wedge, and while I think HRRR's is overcooked, I don't think the ATL metro gets destabilized.
1739300016427.png1739300024585.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Tommrow is looking like a sleeper event with all eyes on Saturday lol.
Click to expand...

Man idk what the deal is but Twitter links just aren't loading on this site (and a lot of others) for the past few months. I swear things break on that website every 5 minutes.
 
00z hrrr has some impressive boundary riding storms tommorow afternoon. A localized enhanced maybe necessary tommorow. (Not necessarily for tornadoes)

Upper 50s and low to mid 70s gradient.
 
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