Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Clancy]

There's literally nothing on the ground, it's just a shelf cloud. I have no idea what their thinking is issuing a PDS warning.

As we've seen several other cases of, this TORP is radar-indicated. I think it's something WFOs must've started doing a few years ago, it seems like a recent development.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
751 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southern Daviess County in northwestern Kentucky...
Southeastern Henderson County in northwestern Kentucky...
Northern McLean County in northwestern Kentucky...
North central Webster County in northwestern Kentucky...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 750 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Robards, or 12 miles south of Henderson,
moving east at 50 mph. This storm is showing very strong rotation
and could produce a strong tornado at any time!

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
St. Joseph and Beech Grove around 755 PM CDT.
Owensboro around 805 PM CDT.
Masonville around 810 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Pleasant Ridge and Moseleyville.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 165 between Mile Markers 60 and 70.
Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 135 and 143.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 8686 3764 8689 3762 8692 3763 8695
3758 8700 3756 8704 3763 8764 3773 8764
3775 8682 3774 8682 3771 8686 3767 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 268DEG 45KT 3766 8753

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

 

[vemir]

regarding the high risk debate, a lot of children who were injured from the STL tornado were coming home from school, which may not have happened if we were under a high risk (which would've persuaded schools to shut down for the day)

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I don't understand this sentiment. What would a high risk have changed? I'm genuinely curious.

In my opinion it wouldn't have made much of a difference if any. 3/14 was a Moderate Risk and it produced 3 50+ mile track tornadoes that day including 2 EF3'S and 1 EF4. The Diaz tornado of course was the strongest but the path length was semi long track. Like 18.62 miles.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

 

[Maxis_s]

There's literally nothing on the ground, it's just a shelf cloud. I have no idea what their thinking is issuing a PDS warning.

It's radar indicated PDS, probably because it produced a strong tornado not long ago. They'll drop it soon.

 

[TornadoFan]

New tornado warning north of Bloomington, IN.

 

[OH-IOan]

Sorry for the low-quality image (stuff still circulating obviously, quality isn't the biggest concern) but this is a home wiped off its foundation in Marion, IL

 

[US_Highway15]

As we've seen several other cases of, this TORP is radar-indicated. I think it's something WFOs must've started doing a few years ago, it seems like a recent development.

I understand why. I mean I vividly remember the El Reno tornado having a downstream Tornado Emergency with the line "a tornado may develop again at any time."

 

[Brice W]

I don’t see it producing anytime soon, there’s a shear line to it. I hope I’m not wrong.

 

[Maxis_s]

regarding the high risk debate, a lot of children who were injured from the STL tornado were coming home from school, which may not have happened if we were under a high risk (which would've persuaded schools to shut down for the day)

STL was barely within the enhanced risk, a high risk would not have solved that unless it included STL (which I would disagree with)
Still incredibly unfortunate to hear that news though

 

[TornadoFan]

I wouldn't rule out the Bowling Green supercell at this point.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Marion, IL is at minimum EF-3. I don't doubt there were at least 2 other EF-3+'s.

 

[OH-IOan]

Yeah, no doubt we've seen strong to violent tornadoes.

 

[eosaurora13]

Sarah Kassabian has significant damage in Morganfield, KY on Ryan Hall's stream.

 

[US_Highway15]

regarding the high risk debate, a lot of children who were injured from the STL tornado were coming home from school, which may not have happened if we were under a high risk (which would've persuaded schools to shut down for the day)

With it being a metropolitan area, I don't think they would've shut down the schools for the day. St. Louis was barely in the MOD risk, so they probably wouldn't have been placed in the HIGH risk anyways.

 

[Atlantic]

Could this produce? (Just right of center)

 

[Clancy]

I wouldn't rule out the Bowling Green supercell at this point.

I thought maybe it'd be heading into a less favorable zone, but it's still got a good environment way out ahead of it.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Emergency management near Bloomington, IN reporting leveled homes.

 

[Brice W]

I thought maybe it'd be heading into a less favorable zone, but it's still got a good environment way out ahead of it.
View attachment 41975

It’s getting better organized too.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

In regards to the scale of this outbreak and the historic comparison, I don't think tonight will top any lists. However, I think as a whole, the several day tornado outbreak sequence we're in the midst of may get up pretty high on the historic list. If it goes over 100 total tornadoes that'll make this year only the 4th in history that has had 3 or more 100+ tornado outbreak sequences. The other years are 2004, 2011, and 2024.