I have my doubts about a significant tornado outbreak today. The storm mode is going to be messy and likely lean towards multi-cell clusters. I think one of the main detractors is related to the wind shear being mostly speed shear as opposed to directional shear. Most of the models show a fairly unidirectional wind profile along the entire column and hodographs are mostly straight and don't have that classic sickle shape to them.
Damaging winds seems to be the dominate threat to me. However, I will say that if an isolated storm can develop ahead of the main cluster(s), then it would have a higher chance of a tornado, but even then I question the longevity of those tornadoes. Kinda goes back to the wind profiles, I worry the mesos will get stretched and tear a lot which would limit long-lived tornadoes. We could be in for more short-lived tornadoes instead of long-track ones. (Again, not ruling them out, but definitely doesn't seem to be the primary evolution right now.) Large hail is also a concern, but even that may be hampered if the mesos gets stretched and torn too much, which may lead to more "pulse" hail events instead of long swaths of big hail.
While high CAPE can overcome some of this, I don't think it will be a slam dunk. It may come down to localized/storm-scale interactions with any boundaries or maybe even terrain to help enhance low-level directional shear (i.e. surface winds coming out the south or southeast instead of the southwest.)
